Closed talks on peace treaty with Russia take place in Kyiv – media predicts loss of territory

Several officials believe that Ukraine lacks the personnel, weapons and Western support to recover the entire country captured by Russia, writes the “Financial Times”.

The third winter of the war between Ukraine and Russia is approaching and in the East, the Defense Forces are losing ground to the offensive attack of the Russian occupation forces, although this is costing the attackers great losses.

Both in Kyiv and Washington and some Western capitals, the mood is changing, the Financial Times writes. The conclusion that the war will only end when the Russian army leaves Ukraine is accepted with the reluctant acceptance that the best solution is a “negotiated settlement that leaves the most of the whole country.” However, Kyiv does not even have support for this goal.

Ukraine’s prospects are largely clouded by the possible victory of Donald Trump in the US elections – he has repeatedly said that he will try to end the war quickly, while some US and European officials hope that Trump can be dissuaded from entering into an unfavorable deal for Ukraine. Moscow that could be a great threat to European and American security in the future.

However, as the war in the Middle East escalates, some Western capitals that previously insisted on a military victory over Russia are also rethinking their goals. . Several Ukrainian officials also lament that they do not have the manpower, firepower and Western support to recapture all of the country captured by Russia, and there is talk behind closed doors of a deal under the guise of the Alliance. Russia controls the occupied territories.

“Moscow has de facto control over about a fifth of Ukraine it has occupied – although Russian sovereignty is not recognized – but the rest of the country has been allowed to join NATO or is receiving equal security commitments,” wrote the Financial Times.

Under this agreement, Ukraine could recover and integrate into the EU, similar to Germany in the Cold War West.

However, such a position is based on ambitious assumptions – one of them assumes that the US and its allies should be ready to offer NATO membership to Ukraine or the necessary commitments.

“This would require the US and its partners to deploy large, expensive forces and leave a cold war style,” wrote the Financial Times.

The other hypothesis is that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be motivated to negotiate and accept such a position, but barring Ukraine from joining NATO was one of the Kremlin’s stated military goals. It is also questionable whether Putin will have an incentive to agree to peace talks if he believes that the Russian military can conquer more territory.