With the U.S. presidential election just a few days away, a very close race continues, making it difficult to predict the outcome.
Democratic candidate Vice President <a href="https://www.world-today-news.com/donald-trump-whats-behind-the-us-presidents-baltimore-attack/" title="Donald Trump: What's behind the US President's Baltimore attack”>Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump are continuing a very close race in various opinion polls and election outcome prediction models.
According to The Hill-Decision Desk HQ data released on the 31st, Vice President Harris’s approval rating was 48.2% and candidate Trump’s was 47.7% based on the results of 313 opinion polls.
Vice President Harris was ahead by a narrow margin, but the gap was only 0.5 percentage points.
This narrowing trend has recently continued in national approval ratings.
◾️ Pay attention to public opinion trends in competing states
Accordingly, ‘swinging states’, where support for a specific party is weak and support changes depending on the issue, have become more important.
In the case of Michigan, a representative battleground state, a poll released by the Washington Post on the 31st showed candidate Trump with an approval rating of 47%, 2% points ahead of Vice President Harris, who was at 45%.
This is the result of a survey of registered voters, and when narrowed down to those actively intending to vote, Vice President Harris had the upper hand.
Vice President Harris came in at 47% and candidate Trump at 46%.
In a public opinion poll in three northern ‘Rust Belts’, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, released by CNN and SSRS the day before (30th), Vice President Harris was ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin.
In Wisconsin, Vice President Harris (51%) beat Trump (45%) by 6 percentage points, and in Michigan, Vice President Harris (48%) beat Trump (43%) by 5 percentage points.
In Pennsylvania, the largest swing state with 19 electoral votes, the two candidates were tied at 48%.
◾️ Chances of election: Harris ↑ Trump ↓
The Economist, which had analyzed last week that Trump’s chances of being elected were 54%, far ahead of Vice President Harris, who was at 45%, adjusted the odds for both candidates to 50% on the 31st.
In this media outlet’s own election result prediction model update, candidate Trump was on the rise, with 48% two weeks ago and 54% last week, but this time he fell significantly.
On the other hand, Vice President Harris, who was in a downward trend, rebounded and tied the score.
The Economist calculates the probability of winning by combining the results of major public opinion polls, the incumbent president’s approval rating, and economic statistics.
◾️ Electoral College expected to be ‘270 to 268’
Vice President Harris’ median estimate of securing the Electoral College has increased.
Last week, the Economist predicted that candidate Trump would secure 276 of the 538 electoral votes, exceeding the majority threshold and entering the electorate.
However, this week, it was analyzed that Vice President Harris reached the majority with 270 votes.
Candidate Trump fell to 268.
◾️ All-out campaign in battlegrounds
The two candidates visited North Carolina at the same time on the 30th and did their best to attract support from voters in the battleground state.
Vice President Harris criticized Trump at a rally in Raleigh, a large city, saying, “Trump is unstable, obsessed with revenge, full of dissatisfaction, and greedy for unchecked power.”
“(Harris) is a completely incompetent person,” Trump said in the small town of Rocky Mount, adding, “No one respects her, no one trusts her, no one takes her seriously.”
The two candidates’ campaign locations were only 55 miles (approximately 88 km) apart.
Meanwhile, the enthusiasm of voters in swing states to participate in the presidential election is also being observed.
In the case of North Carolina, it was reported that more than 3 million people had completed early voting as of the 30th.
The official election day for this presidential election is the 5th of next month.
◾️ To the west at the same time on the 31st
The two candidates now head to western swing states.
Vice President Harris plans to hold a campaign rally in Las Vegas, Nevada on the 31st.
Popular singer and actress Jennifer Lopez will participate in this event.
Candidate Trump will hold a campaign rally in Phoenix, Arizona on the same day.
Conservative broadcaster Tucker Carlson will be joining us.
Candidate Trump also plans to stop by New Mexico.
Although New Mexico is not one of the ‘7 major swing states,’ it is considered one of the battlegrounds in this presidential election.
VOA News
