The squeeze on the cost of money announced by the Bce it will also have a cascading effect on mortgages. Who bought a house with an interest rate loan variable will suffer the most immediate impact: the installments will go up already in July, when the first hike in the reference rate of 25 basis points, and a new increase will start in September with the announced second change by the Eurotower. For those who have a fixed rate there are no consequences, but those who had planned to ask for it to buy a property in the coming months will suffer the repercussions: the offers have already become gradually cheaper and from now on we will see further increases in theIrsthe benchmark for these loans.
For variable rate mortgages, the transmission channel is the index Euribor: currently the three-month one is below zero (-0.30%), but in light of the future trend at the end of the year it will touch 1%, he calculates Facile.it. If today the average variable rate for a 120,000 euro loan to be repaid in 20 years is equal to 0,85%with a monthly payment of 544 euroby December the amount could be heavier than about 75 euros. In twelve months (a June 2023), according to the offer comparator the index could reach around 1.75% which would raise the floating rate to 2.95% and the mute installment at 663 eurosthat means almost 120 euros more compared to today. In December 2027, forecasts give the Euribor around 2.10%. In this case, the rate would rise to 3.30% and the monthly payment to 684 euros. But in this time horizon, anything can happen, including a new change in monetary policy stance.
As for the rates fixed, the nominal annual rate starting from 2021 has already risen considerably thanks to the expectation of a stop to the hyper-expansionary policies of the central bank. Today, according to the surveys of Facile.it, for an average mortgage it is difficult to find options under the 2,4%. After all, the benchmark index has soared: the 20-year IRS at the end of November was at 0,34%now it is over the 2,1%. For those who have to buy, at the moment the variable remains much cheaper, with indices starting from 0,65%. But they are destined to rise soon.
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