– Individually, these events are as unexpected as ever, since they are a common part of the weather. That there will be more and more strong heat waves, and more intense periods of extreme rain, is not surprising, however.
This is what senior researcher Bjørn Hallvard Samset at Cicero, center for climate research, says about the heat waves that are now raging in Southeastern Europe.
This week there were several countries in the area where the temperature approached 50 degrees.
– It is one of the clearest predictions from climate research, and is really just a consequence of the earth being warmer. The hottest days will also be warmer than before, and thus the heat waves will be stronger, Samset continues.
WORRIED: Climate researcher Bjørn Hallvard Samset is not surprised by the high temperatures in Southeastern Europe. Now he fears even more extreme weather Photo: Nina Hansen / Dagbladet
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The conditions are right
The high temperatures also lead to more evaporation. Warmer air can retain more moisture, and thus the extreme rain causes more water to escape, once the conditions are right for it.
– It is difficult to predict exactly where such events will occur, but the actual development in step with global warming is clear, says the senior researcher.
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– Are you worried?
– I am absolutely worried, like many others. We have adapted society to the conditions we have experienced so far, both the extreme and the normal days. There is always a certain chance that there will be a weather system that is so far beyond what we have taken into account, and that it can do damage.
The researcher then explains that we can try to adapt to the new conditions, but that he is also worried that there will be more surprises and unexpected combinations of extreme weather.
That is, unfortunately, the message from most of the research on extreme weather at the moment.
Fear heat record: – Very critical
– It is important to make the risk assessments
According to Samset, we must expect more frequent extreme weather, also in the time to come. More intense heat waves, extreme rain, droughts and associated phenomena such as forest fires are something we must expect around the world, also in Norway, the researcher believes.
HOT: The European Space Agency (ESA) on Tuesday published a map showing the heat wave. In a statement, the agency says that temperatures in Turkey and Cyprus have reached 50 degrees. Photo: ESA / AFP / NTB
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– For Norway, the calculations show that heat waves and extreme rain are the biggest risk factors, but history shows that we are also exposed to drought and fires. In the summer of 2018, for example, we saw a combination of heat and drought that created major problems for agriculture, while a dry winter contributed to the major fire in Flatanger in January 2014. Exactly what the climate risk is, varies from municipality to municipality, but no matter where in the country we live it is important to do the risk assessments now.
– How can we prepare?
– The earlier we prepare for extreme events, the better equipped we are when they come. It is the same type of preparation we do when we have a fire drill at home: We do not expect the house to catch fire, but the damage will be less if everyone knows what to do if the accident is out, he says.
New heat wave: – There is only one solution
We can do this
Finally, Samset says that there are two things we can do in an attempt to stop the dramatic consequences.
– One is to adapt to a warmer climate, since the climate changes we have all experienced are here to stay. Global warming will not go down again in the foreseeable future. The second thing we can do is remove the causes of climate change, so that they become as not serious as possible. In short, this means getting rid of greenhouse gas emissions from society, and in particular CO₂ from the use of oil, coal and gas.
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