Home » News » Climate: “Heat records” continue – El Niño weakens – 2024-05-10 23:05:10

Climate: “Heat records” continue – El Niño weakens – 2024-05-10 23:05:10

The world lived (and) in April “excellent” temperatures, as monthly heat records were recorded both on the ground and on the surface of the oceans, according to the latest data from the European observatory Copernicuswhich are released today.

The natural climate phenomenon El Niño “continued to weaken”leaving open the possibility of a decrease in temperatures later this year, but no change was observed in the underlying trend, that of warming, fueled by the massive burning of fossil fuels (gasoline, oil, gas, coal).

Again above 1.5° Celsius

Since June 2023, the heat record has been broken continuously every month.

April 2024 was no exception to what tends to be the norm, with an average temperature of 15.03°C, in other words 1.58 degrees above any normal April in the pre-industrial era (1850-1900).

“Although unusual, such a streak of monthly records was already seen in 2015-2016,” when it had lasted 15 months, the Copernicus service emphasizes.

Read: Copernicus: 2023 is the hottest year on record, with global temperatures close to the 1.5°C limit

Over the past 12 months, the planet’s temperature has averaged 1.61°C higher than in pre-industrial times, above the Paris Agreement’s (2015) target of keeping temperature increase below 1.5 ° Celsius. However, this anomaly must be recorded for decades to be considered that the climate exceeded this absolutely critical threshold.

In any case, however, it is established “how remarkable are global temperature conditions”, underlined Julien Nicolas, climatologist of the European climate change service Copernicus (C3S), to Agence France-Presse.

Last month was the second warmest ever recorded in Europe, along with March and the winter season as a whole.

Contrasts

Each additional degree of increase in global temperature is accompanied by “extreme climate events, which are becoming more severe and more likely”recalls Julien Nicolas, as recent weeks have been marked by extreme heat waves in Asia, India and Vietnam, while southern Brazil and other regions have been hit by extremely deadly floods.

In terms of rainfall, the climate change agency Copernicus did not draw clear conclusions about trends in April. The month was wetter than normal across much of Europe, but drier than normal in the southern part of the continent.

The same contrast is observed outside Europe: in much of North America, central and eastern Asia, the Gulf, southern Brazil, extreme rainfall caused widespread flooding. On the contrary, in northern Mexico, around the Caspian Sea, as well as in a large part of Australia, drought prevailed.

Oceans: Small bend

Ocean surface temperature also set a record in April compared to any previous record, excluding the poles. This is the thirteenth consecutive month that a record has been set.

This warming threatens marine life, increases humidity in the atmosphere, and threatens the ability of the oceans—which have a critical role—to absorb man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

However, the sea surface temperature registered a marginal decrease compared to March and its absolute record (21.04° Celsius, from 21.07° Celsius).

El Niño is weakening

The natural climate phenomenon El Niño “continued to weaken” in April and the situation moved towards “neutral conditions”, notes the Copernicus observatory.

The phenomenon occurs in the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean and contributes to global warming.

El Niño “peaked at the beginning of the year”explained Julien Nicolas, which probably explains the slight dip in average temperatures in April compared to March.

“Model predictions indicate a possible transition to La Niña conditions in the second half of the year,” Nevertheless “conditions are still quite uncertain”noted the climatologist.

The La Niña phenomenon is the opposite of El Niño—it leads to a decrease in global temperatures—but the end of El Niño does not necessarily mean that temperatures will stop rising, that global warming will slow down.

“This phenomenon adds to long-term trends that persist and are directly linked to global warming, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the amount of heat absorbed and stored, especially in the oceans.” pointed out Mr. Nikolas.

2024, a year of new records?

These trends continue to “push global temperatures towards new records”, warns Carlo Buodembo, director of C3S.

At the end of March, the UN already warned that it exists “high probability” record temperatures in 2024, while 2023 ended a record-warming decade, pushing Earth “on the brink of the abyss.”

For Julien Nicolas of the Copernicus service, however, “it’s still a little early” to predict if records will be broken again this year, given that 2023 was a great year.

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