Norway is miles away from reaching the climate goals – expert takes a hard line with politicians.
In the report «Energy Transition Norway», the consulting company DNV, on behalf of Norsk Industri, looks into the crystal ball and describes what Norway’s energy future will most likely look like.
How will we be able to cut emissions while we become more people who live in more houses and who take part in an economy that will require more and more energy?
Energy efficiency is a measure that gets little space and attention in the public conversation, but which will play a key role in the future, according to the DNV report.
To use less energy in the future the things we use energy for today will be able to help us use about as much energy in 2050 as today in transport, construction and industry.
Main findings in the report
- Norway will probably not reach the climate goals for 2030. Norway will be able to cut 24 per cent of emissions compared with 1990 – not 55 per cent.
- Norway must increase power production quickly to be able to meet a higher demand for electricity in the future.
- Oil and gas exports will fall significantly – and Norway’s export revenues will be reduced by 63 percent in 2050, or NOK 210 billion annually.
- Norway can able to achieve the emission targets with large investments in research, technology development and projects. But the measures will involve changes that will be unpopular or that can only be implemented via the ballot paper.
Source: DNV report Energy Transition Norway, 2021.-
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Towards the politicians: – A farce
“It should be at the top of the priority list when the authorities and companies consider different ways of cutting emissions,” writes DNV about energy efficiency.
Guro Hauge, who is responsible for construction and materials at Miljøstiftelsen Zero, believes that energy efficiency is underestimated and miles away from a top position on the politicians’ priority list.
– Yes, we will have to develop a lot of new renewable energy to achieve the climate goals, but an important part of the equation is that we must free up terrawatt hours used in the building stock to cut emissions, Hauge says.
On report from LO and NHO from this summer showed that we will need 40 to 50 TWh of new renewable energy by 2030 to achieve the climate goals. At the same time, NVE’s calculations show that we are only likely to develop 8 to 10 TWh of new renewable power.
Zeros Hauge believes it is a paradox that there is no whip or carrot on the part of the authorities to make more buildings more environmentally friendly. Enova no longer provides grants to help existing commercial buildings to this end, and the offer to homeowners has not worked well enough, she believes.
Five years ago, the Storting decided that the government should present a plan for how we could save 10 TWh from existing buildings in Norway by 2030.
– The follow-up of this has been a farce. In five years, the government has not even managed to make a plan for how to achieve this goal. While what they have done has been to cut the most important tool so far, which has been support for energy efficiency in commercial buildings, says Hauge.
10 TWh target in the blue
- In 2016, the Storting asked the government to present a plan for how the goal of 10 TWh of energy savings in buildings by 2030 could be achieved.
- I Prop. 1S (2017-2018) writes the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, among other things, that the demolition of old buildings would be the biggest contribution to achieving the goal. This without taking into account new energy consumption of 11 TWh from new construction and population growth until 2030.
- In 2017, several of the Energy and Environment Committee were members disagree with that the government had followed up the decision in the Storting.
- In 2020, the government asked to come up with a new plan. The Ministry of Petroleum and Energy and the Ministry of Local Government and Modernization have asked NVE and the Directorate for Building Quality to draw up a plan to achieve the goal, but it is not yet ready.
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– A nice carrot
Hauge points to several ways to accelerate energy efficiency. Zero has proposed that all commercial buildings without a clear plan for energy management must have a regular energy audit that can follow up the energy consumption in buildings that use a lot of energy or that have a poor energy rating.
– We also believe that the public sector should only rent buildings with an energy rating of A. It will raise the standard in general, as many will probably invest in being able to rent to public customers, Hauge says.
Similar to the DNV report, Hauge says that we can cut large emissions with re-insulation, heat pumps and better windows.
– It is a way for ordinary people to get better comfort at home and lower electricity bills. Energy saving is a nice carrot for people in what will be a severe climate change in the coming years, says Hauge.
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