After officially launching his presidential campaign, Ron DeSantis was asked about climate change.
He dodged the question: “I have always rejected the politicization of the climate.”
But it is absolutely necessary to politicize the climate.
With a historic heat wave gripping much of Europe and the United States, Washington DC is experiencing temperatures in the 90s with a heat index of 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 Celsius). EFE/EPA/JIM LO SCALZO
In practice, environmental policy will probably not be a central issue in the 2024 campaign, which will revolve mainly around the economy and social issues.
Yet we live in a time of acceleration of disasters related to climate, and the environmental extremism of the Republican Party – it is more hostile to climate action than any other major political party in the advanced world – would be, in a more rational political debate, andthe biggest electoral problem of all.
First, the environmental background:
We’re only halfway there in 2023, but we’ve already seen multiple weather events that would have been shocking not too long ago.
On a global scale, last month was thethe hottest june ever registered.
Global map
Unprecedented heat waves have hit one region of the world after another:
South Asia and the Middle East suffered a life-threatening heat wave in May;
Europe is now going through its second catastrophic heat wave in a short period of time; China is experiencing its hottest temperatures ever recorded; and much of the southern United States has been experiencing dangerous levels of heat for weeks, with no end in sight.
Floridians might be tempted to take a refreshing dip in the ocean, but ocean temperatures off South Florida have been approaching 100 degrees, not much below hot tub temperatures.
And while the rest of the United States hasn’t been quite as hot, everyone in the Northeast remembers how smoke from canadian wildfires caused days of dangerous poor air quality and orange skies.
But extreme weather events have always been with us.
Can we prove that climate change has caused any particular catastrophe?
Not quite.
But the burgeoning field of “extreme event attribution” comes pretty close.
Climate models say that certain types of extreme weather events are more likely on a warming planet; For example, what used to be a heat wave that we experienced on average only once every several decades becomes an almost annual event.
Event attribution compares the probabilities of an extreme event occurring due to global warming with the probabilities that the same event would have occurred without climate change.
By the way, I would say that extreme event attribution gains credibility from the fact that it doesn’t always tell the same story, that sometimes it says climate change wasn’t to blame.
For example, preliminary analyzes suggest that climate change played a role limited role in the extreme floods that recently devastated north-eastern Italy.
However, that was the exception that proves the rule.
Overall, attribution analyzes show that global warming made the catastrophes of the last years.
We do not yet have estimates for the latest series of catastrophes, still ongoing, but it seems safe to say that this global chain of extreme weather events would have been virtually impossible without climate change.
And it is almost certain that this is nothing more than the spearhead of the crisis, a small preview of the many catastrophes that are coming.
Which brings me back to the “politicization of the climate.”
Worrying about the climate crisis should not be a partisan issue.
But it is, at least in this country.
Last year, only 22% of Americans who considered themselves politically to the right saw climate change as a major threat;
the left-right gap here it was much higher than in other countries.
And only in the United States do you see things like Texas Republicans actively trying to undermine the burgeoning sector of the renewable energy of his own state.
The amazing thing about climate denialism is that the arguments have not changed at all over the years:
Climate change is not happening; OK, it’s happening, but it’s not that bad; besides, doing anything about it would be an economic disaster.
And neither of these arguments is abandoned in the face of the evidence.
The next time there’s a cold snap somewhere in the United States, the usual suspects will once again claim that climate change is a hoax.
Spectacular technological advances in renewable energy, which now make the path to deep emissions reductions seem easier than even optimists imagined, have not stopped claims that the costs of the Biden administration’s climate policy will be unsustainable.
So we shouldn’t expect record-breaking heat waves around the world to put an end to claims that climate change, while it’s happening, isn’t a big deal.
Nor should we expect Republicans to soften their opposition to climate action, no matter what happens in the world.
What this means is that if the Republican Party seizes control of the White House and Congress next year, it will almost certainly try to dismantle the series of green energy subsidies enacted by the Biden administration that, according to experts, will lead to a significant reduction in emissions.
Like it or not, the weather is a political issue.
And Americans need to be aware that it is one of the most important issues on which they will vote next November.
c.2023 The New York Times Company
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2023-07-18 23:47:01
#politicize #climate
