First central European trend for November
November: the trend for next month, which has just arrived, does not leave much to rest assured. We will most likely have to deal with an anomalous month from a climatic point of view, with direct consequences on many of our regions.
The reason is easy to say: if on the one hand we will have to deal with unseasonal heat, especially in some sectors (even if this is now almost no longer newsworthy), on the other there is the serious danger of the formation of cyclones Mediterranean.
Two sides of the same coin that go under a single common denominator: climate change.
TEMPERATURES. For the next month of November, temperature values above the climatic average of around +1/3°C are expected for a large part of Italy. In addition to giving rise to still pleasant days, this “unseasonal heat” is also reflected in the sea temperatures, which record values of around 2°C above the reference averages, after a summer that was nothing short of hot. All this will translate into greater potential energy at play (high levels of humidity in the lower layers of the atmosphere), i.e. the fuel necessary for the development of particularly violent storms.
RAINFALL. Here is the other side of the coin, namely the risk linked to waves of bad weather. This is further confirmed by the latest projections from Central Europe which focus particular attention on Italy due to the serious risk of flood events.
Nothing so strange, however: November is in fact increasingly characterized by the presence of Mediterranean cyclones, or by vast depression areas that form on our seas: these atmospheric structures can last for several days, causing heavy rain with cumulative rains of over 2/ 300 liters per square meter in a very short time and storm surges along the most exposed coasts.
For details and to understand which areas will be most exposed, it is obviously necessary to wait a little longer, as it is not possible (at this time distance) to understand where the depression lows and the trajectory of the disturbances will form. Temperatures above averages between 1 and 3°C over a large part of Italy (source: ECMWF) Precipitation surplus (green colour) expected for November (source: ECMWF) However, these will be the configurations to be monitored carefully as they represent a serious risk for many areas of our country. Finally, as we always remember, long-term trends serve to provide a general idea of the expected weather and should therefore not be understood as classic weather forecasts, i.e. they are not useful for planning events in one’s daily life.
2023-10-22 16:00:00
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