Climate Change Expert Robert Vautard Discusses Extreme Weather Patterns and Climate Predictions

PARIS.- he is Extreme weather What the planet is experiencing now is within the range of experts’ predictions, says the French climatologist Robert Vautardwho directs the Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace and the co-chairs of the IPCC Working Group 1commissioned by the UN to study the weather.

Despite this, Vautard says that there are still unknowns to be resolved. As a specialist in the rapid impact of meteorological events and their possible connection to climate change, he clarifies that there are “loose goals.”

As to whether the warming of the climate in the past 12 months is following climate prediction models or whether we have entered uncharted territory, Vautard says: “If we’re talking about climate models, we’re right in the middle, without a doubt. We are “We are within the range predicted by climate forecasters, which was expected some time ago.

However, Vautard notes that there are questions about the magnitude of the change between 2022 and 2023. “But if you look closely, we have experienced similar changes in the 1970s, so it is not something new this,” he said.

The expert mentions that certain anomalies continue, such as the one in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which has not been fully understood and continues in 2024. It is also mentions unknowns about Antarctic and Indian Ocean sea ice.

Regarding the causes of these anomalies, Vautard explains that we must always consider the possibility of natural variations that overlap with climate change. “It’s like the weather: behavior is random from year to year or even decade to decade,” he says.

Regarding the pace of attribution studies that link real events to climate change, Vautard says that these methods are supported by a strong foundation of previous research. “When a study is published on a heat wave, for example, we know that there are many others behind it, so we are sure of what we say,” he says.

Vautard highlights the importance of attribution both to the scientific community and to inform the public and decision-makers. In addition, it shows that each study contributes to the advancement of knowledge about climate models and ideas, which are necessary to better understand the challenges we face in relation to climate change.

SOURCE: With information from AFP