Farmers in India are already experiencing the impact of global warming on their land. To be able to irrigate it anyway, they now have another solution: pumping up more groundwater. But there are shortages as a result. With major consequences for the huge Indian population and the rest of the world.
If the trend continues – in other words, if we fail to stop climate change – the groundwater level will drop three times as fast as it is now by 2080, according to research by the University of Michigan. It puts severe pressure on India’s food and water supply.
Major food producer
The livelihoods of a third of the country with a population of 1.4 billion are under threat because less water will soon be available as a result of climate change and the depletion of groundwater. It also has global implications. India is the world’s second largest producer of grains such as rice and wheat.
“We have found that farmers are already pumping more water as a result of the higher temperatures, which has not yet been taken into account in previous predictions about the groundwater level in India,” says researcher Meha Jain. “That is a concern as India is the world’s largest consumer of groundwater and a crucial producer of food, regionally and globally.”
Farmers intervene themselves
The researchers came to their conclusions by studying historical data on groundwater levels, climate and water consumption. For example, they were able to determine that more groundwater is being pumped up since the Earth has warmed up. They also compared climate models with predictions about future temperatures and precipitation to estimate future groundwater loss in India.
Previous studies have mainly focused on the individual effects of climate change and groundwater depletion on crops in the country. They did not take into account the decisions that farmers make themselves, for example to pump up more groundwater when it gets drier. The American researchers are now doing that. They have calculated the extent to which the higher temperatures affect the water needs of crops and how farmers respond by pumping up more water.
Measures needed
“The estimates of our models show that if nothing changes, the higher temperatures will cause the groundwater shortage to increase three times as fast in the future and that hotspots will also arise in South and Central India where the groundwater will be depleted,” says lead researcher Nishan Bhattarai of the University of Oklahoma, who is deeply concerned. “Without policy measures to maintain groundwater levels, the higher temperatures will exacerbate India’s already existing groundwater problem and will put further pressure on India’s food and water security due to the climate crisis.”
Previous studies have already shown that climate change could reduce the yield of India’s main crops by 20 percent by the middle of this century. At the same time, the groundwater level in the country is falling at an alarming rate, especially as it is used for irrigation.
The well dries up
The researchers have developed a dataset containing the groundwater levels of thousands of wells throughout India. They also used satellite observations to measure the water stress of crops and temperature and precipitation data. According to most climate models, temperatures are rising, the rainy season is intensifying and India will become drier in the winter in the coming decades. The problem is that the increasing precipitation in the summer is not enough to compensate for the higher temperatures and the drought in the winter, causing the groundwater level to drop more quickly.
After comparing several climate scenarios, the estimate remains that between 2041 and 2080 the groundwater level will fall more than three times as fast as it is today. If India wants to continue to feed itself and the world, something has to change very quickly.
2023-09-04 16:20:00
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