/ world today news/ Bloomberg once again paints a sad picture of the development of European green energy. By 2030, Russian gas will not be able to be replaced by windmills. And against this background, the process of deindustrialization of Europe continues rapidly. In the meantime, we should not so much gloat over the problems of the Old World as wonder if we ourselves are about to plunge into a green bacchanalia with a maniacal desire to shove windmills and solar panels everywhere.
This has never happened – and here it is again! The American news agency Bloomberg reported that Europe is again experiencing serious problems with the introduction of wind and solar generation instead of Russian natural gas.
Plans to reduce emissions and drastically increase the share of renewable energy sources (RES) are failing. The Old World is increasingly entering the acute phase of a full-scale energy crisis, which has many causes.
However, two main ones can be singled out: the severing of the EU’s beneficial economic ties with Russia and the ideological “ultra-green” approach to solving energy problems, which, by the way, President Putin has been warning Europeans for a long time.
Americans cast a shadow over the fence
However, it seems a little strange that Bloomberg is pitting wind power against Russian gas, said Alexander Frolov, deputy director general of the National Energy Institute, an expert at the InfoTEK center, in a comment to First Russian:
“I can’t say that this is generally unacceptable wording, but it is strange to say the least.”
“We should not talk about replacing natural gas, but about replacing coal production, which will be completely phased out by 2030 if we are talking about countries like Germany, and by 2040 if we are talking about those like Poland.” he stated.
“Gas production itself is not subject to any restrictions, but it implies an increase in investment in gas plants, and it is clear that supplies from Russia cannot now be a priority for the EU. However, even any restrictions on supplies from our country, strictly speaking, are not introduced,” said Frolov.
As for wind energy as such, it has been said for years that in order to achieve the goals set in the Green Deal, the European Union must multiply investments in renewable energy sources, that is, have more wind and solar power plants.
However, there is no guarantee that an increase in the installed capacity of these power plants will lead to an increase in the electricity generated, as the wind does not always blow. And let’s say that in 2021 the EU was faced with such a situation that the wind farms themselves were more than in 2020, and the amount of electricity produced turned out to be less due to a decrease in wind activity, the expert notes.
Europe without Russian gas is a continent without industry
The question of the potential substitution of Russian gas should be considered in parallel with the question of wind energy, as it is necessary to replace natural gas with natural gas.
With Germany closing the last nuclear power plants, the French are experiencing difficulties with nuclear production and the availability of gas-fired power becomes especially important. And the decisions taken at the EU level suggest an increase in investment in the development of gas-fired power plants to compensate for the declining volumes of coal production and, in addition, to create a safety cushion in the development of renewable energy sources.
“In 2022, demand for blue fuel in the EU continued to fall, while there was a record collapse in consumption: demand fell by around 60 billion cubic meters,” Frolov said.
“And if we take the entire European area, including the United Kingdom, then with 70 billion. This is an unprecedented drop,” he was emphatic.
“And in such conditions, external gas supplies become less relevant than under conditions of normal consumption. If the EU does not restore its consumption, some of the Russian gas will not be needed. But only if the EU manages to preserve the volumes of liquefied natural gas, which have come to his market in 2022,” Frolov emphasized.
And the Old World does not have so many chances for this, because the EU attracted these volumes at a high price. Now Asia is starting to win in terms of price.
This means the transfer of liquefied natural gas from the European to the Asian direction. And in this regard, wind energy becomes only an additional point of pressure on the industry, and is far from the most important.
Of course, the decrease in gas consumption indicates the deindustrialization of Europe. In the second half of 2021, there is a decrease in production, a decrease in the demand for gas from industrial enterprises.
If you look at the results of 2022, then the demand in the industry decreased by about 15%, and the decline began as early as 2021. Strictly speaking, this is evidence of a deep economic crisis, the analyst pointed out. In general, the current crisis is a successor to the crisis of the late 2000s, which was never overcome in the EU and unfolded in full force in the summer of 2021. And it continues to the present.
Why does Russia need a green needle?
Those who closely follow the green agenda in recent years remember who was the main lobbyist for the accelerated entry of RES in our country. If anyone has forgotten, it was Anatoly Chubais, who in 2020-2022 held the position of special presidential envoy for relations with international organizations for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.
Anatoly Borisovich’s ideas were quite typical of the “effective manager” of the 1990s. For example, Chubais actually proposed to destroy the local coal mining industry, which brings us huge profits, because it, in his opinion, has no future (doesn’t it make more sense in this case to monetize the existing reserves as soon as possible?). And, of course, it provided massive funding for the green bums.
At the same time, Anatoly Chubais talked a lot, but did not make any decisions. In general, the development of RES is one of the government’s priorities. This is what even our prime minister says, notes Alexander Frolov:
“It seems to our state that if we push windmills and solar panels, it will qualitatively affect our economy and the reliability of energy supply. The overdevelopment and overattention to this segment appeared in the late 2010s,” he said.
“It was related to our concerns about the prospects in the European market, where green restrictions were involved, where green taxes were going to be introduced. And we were desperately trying to develop this segment, trying to reduce our carbon footprint, to increase our competitiveness.” , Frolov said.
Currently, the development of this segment without the condition of developing the entire value chain is, to put it mildly, an ambiguous option for Russia.
In the installed capacity of our power plants excluding wind and solar, about 30% of all generation is from carbon-free sources (NPP and hydropower). Therefore, if we care about the environment, we must improve the efficiency of the existing types of power plants, as they do for example in China.
And if we really want to develop windmills and solar panels, we have to manufacture them at home. At the same time, they are not engaged in the production of screwdrivers without buying an element base in China, but by liberating everything from which these panels are made. In China, they do exactly that, so it is a world leader in this direction.
“If you don’t have the whole value chain, then the development of renewable energy for you on a national scale, and not in individual regions, seems like an excessive task,” the expert summarized.
Translation: SM
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