It’s snowing, it’s snowing, and the shops are filling up with Christmas goods. Gingerbread, lutefisk, ribs and Christmas soft drink. It’s tempting to taste test, but if you let the money decide, you’d be wise to wait, we believe food price magnate Ivar Pettersen.
– Here it is a matter of following along and adapting to the offers that come in connection with Christmas, says Pettersen to DinSide.
Pettersen has analyzed the food market for the Norwegian Institute for Bioeconomy (Nibio) for a number of years, and now works through his analysis company ALO-Analyse AS.
Elleville prices on the Christmas table
Cheap, classic Christmas food are good lures to get customers into the store, according to Pettersen, but exactly when the prices are cut is more difficult to say, as this varies from year to year.
A little deep dive in DinSide and Dagbladet’s archive shows that the timing of the big Christmas price cuts this side of the millennium has varied from approximately 10 November to 10 December. In recent years, it has landed somewhere around the middle, towards the end of November.
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Not as rabid
Historically, it has been the Christmas rib in particular that has been at the forefront of price cuts. There has been a lot to save on ribs in particular, it has fallen far more in price than pork in general, says Pettersen. Now this has corrected itself somewhat.
FOLLOW: The price cuts are coming, but not all goods will be cheaper before Christmas, according to Ivar Pettersen. Photo: ALO Analysis Show more
– We no longer see such rabid offers for ribs as we saw in the period 2012-2014, when ribs were down to NOK 19 before Christmas, says Pettersen.
Although it has been a long time since we saw such prices for ribs, we are still not going back any further than last year, when the cheapest ribs cost less than NOK 50 per kilo in the run-up to Christmas. And after Christmas it is always possible to make good deals. Today, the cheapest Christmas ribs cost around NOK 130 per kilo.
And if there is one Christmas product that has a high chance of being sold reasonably well this year, it is ribs.
– There has been a surplus of meat and full freezer stocks, so here we have already seen reduced prices.
This applies especially to pork.
– It is said that there is still a good supply of pork to cover the need up until Christmas. This means that the slaughterhouse will keep prices moderate.
This is supported by former colleague, Mads Svennerud, in Nibio:
– There are strong signals that there has been a very large production of pork.
He expects this to be an item that the shops will compete for in the run-up to Christmas.
Pay attention to the final sum
The price cuts still have to be brought in somewhere, so in the period ahead you can also count on prices to become more polarized.
– We like to see a mix of some goods being extremely cheap, while more exclusive goods tend to be more expensive, says Pettersen, and again emphasizes the importance of paying close attention.
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Too cheap a rib doesn’t help if all the other prices are turned up accordingly.
Don’t wait too long
In some cases, it can be smart to start early, advises Pettersen. Early, as in when the offers come. Because it is by no means certain that all the offers will last until Christmas Eve.
– For the retailers, it is wise to get some of the Christmas goods out quite early, not to sell everything at once. It is not certain that the same items will be on offer until Christmas.
Here, you just have to follow along, in other words.
You should also be aware that some products may be sold out. November and December are high season for out-of-stock situations on certain seasonal items, and which ones apply, vary from year to year.
We will not forget the Christmas soda evening, which ensured sold-out situations several years in a row. Last year, on the other hand, it was the classic Tomte mulled wine and gingerbread cookies that got people going.
DinSide is in regular contact with the chains, and so far no Christmas goods have taken off – but this could quickly change.
2023-10-31 18:32:26
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