Bunkers the military chocolate! Chocolate could become a scarce commodity in the future
Chocolate lovers must now be strong: chocolate could become rare in the coming years. Epidemics and climate change are to blame.
Everyone is talking about chocolate. For a long time. Not that the sweet cocoa product is a particularly interesting topic of conversation. It just tastes so damn good. The average Swiss averaged 10 to 12 kilos of chocolate a year for the past 10 years.
But that could end in the future, because the source of the Swiss trademark is at risk: the future of the cocoa tree is uncertain.
What threatens the cocoa tree? Who is affected and, above all, are there possible solutions? An overview in four points:
What exactly is the problem?
Basically, climate change is the problem. As a result, temperatures are rising in West Africa – as is the case almost everywhere in the world. The region is currently responsible for around three quarters of cocoa production worldwide.
However, the forecast higher temperatures will not go hand in hand with higher precipitation. The American weather and oceanography agency NOAA calculated that in 2050 in Ghana and Ivory Coast, the two largest cocoa producers in the world, almost 90 percent of the current yield area will no longer be suitable. The entire cultivation would have to be relocated to the highlands.
Judith Brown, a plant virologist from the University of Arizona, told the science magazine spectrum:
The Bloomberg news service therefore prophesies that already global cocoa demand can no longer be met in 2030. Up to two million tons of cocoa will be missing.
But climate change is not the only threat to cocoa trees. Diseases are also extremely difficult for plants. The greatest danger currently poses Cocoa Swollen Shoot Disease (CSSD).
What about the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Disease on himself?
CSSD is a viral disease of the cocoa trees, which is mostly in Ghana. Already 16 percent of all cocoa trees are infected there.
The incubation period is up to seven weeks, after which the first symptoms become visible: the veins of the leaves change color, later the stem and young shoots swell (shoot swelling), which gives the disease its name. The growth of the fruit and the quality of the beans decrease. The tree dies after one to three years.
It is extremely difficult to detect the disease because a variety of different viruses can trigger CSSD.
A swollen branch. Image: wikimedia/ CC0 1.0
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The disease itself was first discovered in Ghana in 1936, but it is only becoming really dangerous today.
The reason for this is simple: Because the demand for chocolate is exploding, cocoa plantations in West Africa continue to grow.
CSSD itself is transmitted by mealybugs. In fields that are getting bigger and bigger and where the trees are closer together, lice have an easy time of it. It is also relatively late to tell whether a tree is sick or not.
Another problem: The CSSD-causing viruses are native to Africa. The cocoa tree is not. It originally comes from the Amazon region and was brought to West Africa by the colonial powers in the mid-19th century. The tree has no natural resistance to the African viruses that attack it.
What are the consequences?
In addition to the fact that we may soon run out of chocolate, the impact on local farmers must also be taken into account. Cocoa is one 100-billion-dollar business,
According to the World Cocoa Foundation, 50 million people depend on growing cocoa. In the Ivory Coast alone, six million people work in the cocoa industry.
The plant virologist Judith Brown told “Spectrum”:
«Many people in rural West Africa live in extreme poverty and are almost entirely dependent on cocoa for their income. A decline in industry caused by climate change and plant diseases could lead to serious unrest and political instability. »
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Are there solutions to the problem?
Approaches to stop climate change, are there many. These should already be known.
CSSD is fighting on different fronts: Researchers at the University of Queensland in Australia are currently working on a mobile DNA test device that farmers can use directly on the trees. In addition, various other projects are running in order to be able to detect the badnaviruses more efficiently.
This takes a different approach World Agroforestry Center: Together with the government of the Ivory Coast, they want to plant “green barriers” around the cocoa plantations. These barriers are said to consist of crops that are immune to CSSD. Citrus plants or rubber, for example.
However, many researchers agree that there is no way around genetic research. The cocoa tree is said to become more resistant at the genetic level.
The most controversial process offers the best chance of success: genetic modification (GMO). However, genetically modified foods are extremely frowned upon, particularly in western countries, and even banned in Switzerland and parts of the EU. Perhaps this will change if the chocolate shelves gradually empty out in the future.
