▲ Lai Ching-toku of the Democratic Progressive Party, who won the Taiwan presidential election held on January 13, responds to the cheers of supporters in front of the party headquarters in Taipei / Yonhap News
On January 17, 11 Chinese military aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and violated Taiwan’s airspace. This was four days after Lai Ching-toku of the Democratic Progressive Party (DP) won Taiwan’s presidential election. There are concerns that the victory of the Democratic Progressive Party, which has put Taiwanese independence and anti-China sentiments at the forefront, will increase tensions between China and Taiwan, and that the economic aftereffects will become stronger. If China continues to increase its pressure on Taiwan, it will become another flashpoint for the world economy, following the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war.
Read more
▲ Lai Ching-toku of the Democratic Progressive Party, who won the Taiwan presidential election held on January 13, responds to the cheers of supporters in front of the party headquarters in Taipei / Yonhap News
On January 17, 11 Chinese military aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and violated Taiwan’s airspace. This was four days after Lai Ching-toku of the Democratic Progressive Party (DP) won Taiwan’s presidential election. There are concerns that the victory of the Democratic Progressive Party, which has put Taiwanese independence and anti-China sentiments at the forefront, will increase tensions between China and Taiwan, and that the economic aftereffects will become stronger. It has been pointed out that if China continues to increase its pressure on Taiwan, it could become another flashpoint for the world economy, following the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war.
■The possibility of China invading Taiwan
Domestic and international experts believe that China’s pressure on Taiwan will intensify in the period leading up to the presidential inauguration ceremony scheduled for May 20. The view is that he will stick to the “one China” principle and try to dampen the momentum of the new administration. Analyzing the results of this election, Mr. Lai received 5.59 million votes (40.1%), followed by Mr. Hou Youyi (4.67 million votes, 33.5%) of the pro-China Nationalist Party and Mr. Ko Wen-che of the centrist Taiwan People’s Party (4.67 million votes, 33.5%). He won by defeating 3.7 million votes (26.4%). In Taiwan, the government has changed hands between the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang every eight years since 2000, but China, which had hoped that pro-China forces would take over from President Tsai Ing-wen, who had served two eight-year terms with the Democratic Progressive Party, was greatly disappointed. It should be.
With an anti-China party in power for a third consecutive term, pressure on China is expected to intensify. Even before the election, China warned against the election, saying, “If Lai is elected, we will not be able to guarantee peace in cross-strait relations.” Immediately after the election, he continued to make threatening statements emphasizing “one China.” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters in Cairo, Egypt on the 14th, “Taiwan independence has never been successful in the past, and it will not be successful in the future.Taiwan independence is a path of death.” .
Given the precedent of Russia invading Ukraine, some believe that China’s invasion of Taiwan is not impossible. In a column comparing China-Taiwan relations with Russia-Ukraine relations, the Financial Times stated, “President Putin and President Xi Jinping both consider the land in Ukraine and Taiwan to be their own legitimate territory,” and “I believe that the Taiwanese people are “The growing tendency for people to think of themselves as Chinese and Taiwanese rather than as Chinese is also a factor that increases Beijing’s concerns.” However, the paper also notes that if war clouds drift over the Taiwan Strait, unlike the Russia-Ukraine war, there is a high possibility that the United States will directly participate in the war, and unlike Russia’s land invasion, the country will have to launch a landing operation on the island nation of Taiwan. He explained that the fates of Taiwan and Ukraine will differ from each other.
■Semiconductor is Gokoku Kamiyama
From an economic perspective, “semiconductors” are one of the reasons why it seems difficult for China to play the “invasion of Taiwan” card. Taiwan also refers to its own company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSMC), the world’s largest foundry (semiconductor contract production) company, as a “sacred mountain that protects the country” and positions it as an important business. Semiconductors are considered important for Taiwan’s economic security. Immediately after his election, Mr. Lai said, “Semiconductors are a common asset throughout the world,” and “I hope that not only Taiwan, but China and the international community will all cherish the semiconductor industry.”
For China, semiconductors made in Taiwan have no choice but to become important as the supply and demand for semiconductors is facing difficulties due to the US-China conflict. Blocking or invading Taiwan, which accounts for a large portion of the world’s semiconductor supply chain, would be a “double-edged sword” that would also damage the Chinese economy, and would inevitably cause a major blow.
China’s invasion of Taiwan would not only deal a devastating blow to the economies of both countries, but could also deal a major blow to the global economy. Bloomberg Economics recently analyzed that if China were to invade Taiwan, Taiwan could lose 40% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in the first year of the war, and China could lose 16.7% of its GDP. The damage to the GDP of both countries alone amounts to approximately 4,300 trillion won (approximately 477 trillion yen), which is twice the GDP of South Korea (approximately 2,200 trillion won). With increased dependence on international supply chains, a war could have a major impact not only on the Taiwan Strait but also on neighboring countries. In particular, South Korea and Japan are expected to be hit hardest outside of China and Taiwan, with their GDPs expected to decline by 23.3% and 13.5%, respectively.
■A half-hearted victory that also protected China’s face
Some believe that one of the reasons why China’s economic pressure on Taiwan is expected to be limited is that China saved its face in this election. In the Legislative Yuan (Parliament) election held on the same day as the Taiwan presidential election, the pro-China Nationalist Party occupied 52 of the total seats (113 seats), making a significant jump from 37 seats before the reelection. Dai Ono created a twisted state. The Democratic Party held only 51 seats in the Legislative Yuan, fewer than the Kuomintang. As a result, Taiwanese people have entrusted the president to an anti-China party and the Legislative Yuan to a pro-China party. “Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan election has a strong meaning of choosing an economic path,” said Yong Won-ho, head of the economic security team at the Korea Foreign Economic Policy Research Institute, adding, “As the number of pro-China seats in the Legislative Yuan increases, this election will be a big hit for China as well. “The results are less disappointing, and there are fewer incentives to put economic pressure on Taiwan.”
Kim Jin-ho, a professor at the Taiwan Academy of Sinica, said, “Up until now, China has pursued a policy of shaking hands with Taiwan with one hand and punching it with the other, but the more it takes tough measures against Taiwan, the more likely it is to receive backlash from Taiwan. “There is still room for China to launch an armed provocation against Taiwan as a political performance for its own people, but if China considers economic interests, I think we will put conciliatory measures to the forefront.”
Reporter Choi Jae-woo
Chosun Ilbo / Chosun Ilbo Japanese version
Copyright (c) Chosunonline.com
#TSMCs #semiconductors #Godly #Mountain #Protecting #Country #China #easily #invade #Taiwan
2024-02-10 01:05:00
