© Reuters. China Merchants Securities: Domestic comedy movies dominate the Spring Festival schedule and are expected to continue the momentum of the New Year’s Day schedule
Zhitong Finance APP learned that China Merchants Securities released a research report stating that the success from last year’s summer season to this year’s New Year’s Day season,This means that as long as the industry continues to output more high-quality content, the audience’s viewing habits will remain unchanged and the demand for viewing will not diminish.At the same time, it is found that word-of-mouth feedback of movies has an increasing impact on box office. For example, the screenings of “The Three Brigades” and “The Annual Meeting Can’t Stop!” started two weeks in advance and gained excellent movie-viewing reputation, and ultimately achieved good box office results. The film reserves for the Spring Festival include “Bear Bears: Reversing Time and Space”, which ranks first on the want-to-watch list, “Flying Life 2” starring the famous comedian Shen Teng, “Article 20” directed by Zhang Yimou, and “Article 20” directed by Jia Ling ’s new film “Hot”, as well as many blockbusters whose official release dates have been delayed, are worth looking forward to.
▍The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows:
Film review: 6 films have been finalized, with domestic comedies occupying the mainstream.
As of January 13, 2024, 6 films have been confirmed for the Spring Festival, 5 of which are comedy-related. It is expected that as more films are announced to be scheduled for the Spring Festival, the Spring Festival period is expected to continue the box office momentum of the New Year’s Day period;
Review of the Spring Festival stalls over the years: The head capacity is large and the aggregation effect is significant.
The Spring Festival period is one of the core periods throughout the year. From 2013 to 2023, the box office during the Spring Festival period increased from 780 million yuan to 6.21 billion yuan, and the 10-year CAGR reached 23.1%. The box office during the Spring Festival period of “Detective Chinatown 3” and “Changjin Lake: Shuimen Bridge” in 2021 and 2022 They reached 3.26/2.33 billion yuan respectively, creating very excellent box office results. From 2013 to 2023, the top two films in the Spring Festival box office accounted for 60%-80% of the box office during the period. It can be seen that the head-gathering effect of the Spring Festival period has become more and more obvious, and the share of the back row has been severely compressed;
2024: New Year’s Day will set a new box office record, and Spring Festival is expected to continue to perform well.
According to statistics from Maoyan Professional Edition, the national movie box office in 2023 was 54.927 billion yuan, compared with the box office results of 20.3 billion yuan, 47 billion yuan, and 29.9 billion yuan in the three years of the epidemic from 2020 to 2022, showing a strong recovery momentum. As the first schedule in 2024, the New Year’s Day schedule has a lot of good movies.
Among them, “Twinkle Twinkle Twinkle” has a cumulative box office of 676 million, and “The Annual Party Can’t Stop!” has also gradually increased its box office due to its excellent reputation, with a cumulative total box office of 730 million. The box office for the New Year’s Day period in 2024 was 1.379 billion yuan, a significant increase of 178% compared to 2023’s 496 million yuan. It broke the box office record for the New Year’s Day show in Chinese film history and made a good start for 2024;
The success of the summer to New Year’s Day shows that the audience’s demand for movies has not diminished, and movie box office is deeply affected by content quality and word-of-mouth feedback.
The success from last year’s summer season to this year’s New Year’s Day season means that as long as the industry continues to produce more high-quality content, audiences’ viewing habits will remain the same and their demand for viewing has not diminished. At the same time, it is found that word-of-mouth feedback of movies has an increasing impact on box office. For example, the screenings of “The Three Brigades” and “The Annual Meeting Can’t Stop!” started two weeks in advance and gained excellent movie-viewing reputation, and ultimately achieved good box office results.
The film reserves for the Spring Festival include “Bear Bears: Reversing Time and Space”, which ranks first on the want-to-watch list, “Flying Life 2” starring the famous comedian Shen Teng, “Article 20” directed by Zhang Yimou, and “Article 20” directed by Jia Ling ’s new film “Hot”, as well as many blockbusters whose official release dates have been delayed, are worth looking forward to.
risk warning:
Risks of intensified competition, risks of film supply being less than expected, risks of policy and regulatory environment, risks of censorship or censorship of work content.
