- Stephen McDonell
- BBC China correspondent from Beijing
7 hours ago
Image caption,
Thousands of representatives will gather at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing to participate in the “Two Sessions” (pictured is a file photo of the opening session of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference on March 4, 2023).
The Chinese government is under intense pressure to come up with solutions for its troubled economy. People will be paying close attention to any new developments as the National People’s Congress kicks off on Tuesday (March 5).
Nearly 3,000 NPC deputies gather at the Great Hall of the People every year to vote on laws, personnel appointments and removals for more than a week, and authorize the smaller NPC Standing Committee to handle government affairs at other times throughout the year.
This is very much a political show, rubber-stamping decisions that have already been made behind the scenes.
But given that the message from the meeting represents the result of careful consideration by those in power, analysts will be watching closely for any changes to the party’s official line and what that might mean for China and the world.
For example, a new wording might signal a change in industrial policy or the introduction of new investment regulations.
For the Chinese Communist Party, ensuring that it maintains its long-term rule over China is more important than the economy. For current leader Xi Jinping, this is an absolute priority in almost all aspects of life.
In recent decades, as the economy has taken off and the living standards of most Chinese people have improved year by year, this does not seem to be a big problem.
But now, Asia’s economic growth engine is caught in a real estate crisis. Many families have lost their life savings by buying unfinished buildings; a large number of college graduates cannot find good jobs; local governments are saddled with huge debts, which makes Policymakers are unable to pump money into infrastructure as they have in the past during times of economic hardship.
Where once a new road project or a series of bridge projects could absorb massive job losses, idle steel and excess concrete capacity, that is no longer the case. Now, China is facing a period of uncertainty.
He told the BBC that there was news that “the government is looking to make some kind of big statement to restore confidence and boost economic growth. People are generally dissatisfied with the state of the economy and, in turn, with the direction that Xi Jinping has set for the country.”
In the past, NPC votes have been marked by considerable disapproval when big policies sparked widespread concerns, such as the decision to flood large swaths of historic areas to build the Three Gorges project.
But under Xi Jinping, this will take courage.
Malid said he did not expect condemnation of the leadership during the two sessions because “all representatives have learned to move in lockstep with the authorities.” But he added that “even the critical noise is important”.
Ann Lee, a professor at New York University, believes that this Congress may pass legislation to provide more support for the private sector.
“This tacitly acknowledges that China’s economy needs more entrepreneurial investment to achieve the high-quality growth goals proposed by Xi Jinping,” she said.
“New Productivity”
Since the end of last year, a term Xi Jinping has been using when talking about the country’s development direction is “new productivity”. That phrase is likely to come up in speeches in the coming weeks as well.
But what does this mean?
Professor Jon Taylor of the University of Texas at San Antonio said Xi was referring to “an emphasis on the development and commercialization of technology, digitalization and high-end manufacturing with emerging smart and environmentally friendly technologies as the core.”
He added that while it was a “pretty interesting slogan,” it would take time for such industries to take off, in part because “these industries are relatively small in the Chinese economy” and “the problem is that China is facing facing some serious challenges.”
He said that a new emphasis on technological innovation may pay off in the long term, but “in the short term, China still relies on infrastructure spending and a shaky real estate market.”
An interesting aspect of Xi Jinping’s proposal of “new qualitative productive forces” is that he said at the Politburo meeting in January that these productive forces would “break away from traditional economic growth methods and productivity development paths,” which seemed to hint at upcoming high-tech breakthroughs. May be organized by and serve the party.
George Magnus, former chief economist of the multinational investment bank UBS, believes that “this emphasizes the party’s leadership and control over the ‘new qualitative productive forces’ and its use of it to carry out ideological work capabilities. This, in turn, means an industrial policy that helps strengthen the party’s dominance in the digital and scientific fields at the heart of the economy.”
Image caption,
The real estate crisis and high youth unemployment have become topics of concern during this year’s “Two Sessions”.
Li Chuo believes that the use of the word is important because it shows “Xi Jinping is determined to revive China’s economy after a setback in the real estate industry and continued tensions in trade relations with the West.” She thinks this “could signal a turning point.”
Well-curated Q&A and mountains of terminology
This large-scale political rally began with a marathon speech by Prime Minister Li Qiang, in which he read out the “Government Work Report” and summarized China’s performance in a wide range of areas such as economy, environment, agriculture, etc. in a very formulaic way over the past 12 months. . The report then turns to the party’s work plan for the next year. This is key to understanding shifts in government thinking, but it may take a magnifying glass to spot them amid the mountain of jargon.
A series of carefully planned press conferences will also be held during the NPC session, with reporters only allowed to ask selected questions and almost all answers rehearsed.
In recent years, the CCP has also placed “fake foreign media” reporters at these press conferences. They appear to represent international media, but are actually from front companies (or front companies) based overseas but controlled by the Chinese government. .
“Gone are the days when ministries and provincial delegations held relatively candid press conferences during the conference,” Malid said.
The mammoth conference may have been an elaborate show – with loyal delegates hunkering down in lengthy reports – but that doesn’t mean it won’t make important progress.
image copyrightGetty Images
Image caption,
At a clothing company in Qiandongnan Prefecture, Guizhou Province, China, Miao women sell embroidered products through online live broadcasts.
Professor Taylor believes that “although the National People’s Congress is often an obvious performative authoritarian activity, there will also be some elements of policy innovation emerging.”
He said that China is in a difficult period.
China “will continue to face several challenges this year: encouraging foreign direct investment during the decoupling period, systematically addressing local government debt problems, restoring private sector confidence, increasing technological autonomy, and boosting consumer demand.”
The superpower faces important questions, and now is the time to find answers.
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2024-03-04 02:01:02
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