Input 2021.01.13 12:00
Household·中企 Credit risk ↑… Considering the economic downturn and poor health of borrowers”
In the first quarter of this year, it is expected that domestic banks will further raise the lending threshold, centering on SMEs and households. They believe that credit risk has increased due to the real economic downturn. SMEs are still in high demand for funding, but banks are expected to strengthen their loan review, unlike last year, when they focused on providing policy funding for SMEs. For households, loan review, centered on general loans, can become difficult as the government’s regulations on credit loans continue.
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The lending attitude index for SMEs turned to -6 in the fourth quarter of last year (3) from the easing trend. The re-proliferation of Corona 19 and the reinforcement of credit soundness management due to the continued economic uncertainty at home and abroad are expected to slightly strengthen, centering on SMEs. There is a possibility of reducing the loan limit or tightening the maturity extension requirement for industries that are concerned about earnings deterioration.
The general household loan attitude index is -12, which is expected to continue strengthening following the previous quarter (-44). In accordance with the credit loan management plan announced by the government in November last year, there is a high possibility that the review will be strengthened centering on credit loans. Household housing (-6) is also expected to undergo strict screening.
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As for SMEs, they were concerned about poor sales of vulnerable industries related to Corona 19, such as aviation and travel, and the decline in soundness of borrowers with delays in repayment of maturity and principal payments. The credit risk of households is also in mind, with the possibility of deteriorating debt capacity as household income decreases. It is expected to increase, mainly for vulnerable borrowers such as low credit and low income groups.
However, the SME loan demand index was 26, up from the previous quarter (18). As the demand for working capital due to a decrease in sales and the demand for extra funds due to uncertainty in the real economy are expanding, there are still many SMEs who want to borrow money from banks. As the re-proliferation of Corona 19 strengthens social distancing measures, it is expected that an increase in SMEs suffering from a decrease in sales earlier this year will increase.
Household loan demand is also expected to increase, centered on general loans, as demand for stock investments and demand for housing purchases and jeonse funds continue.
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