Analysis by Qatar National Bank: China will remain a driving force for global economic growth
An economic analysis, released today, Saturday, expected that China will continue to act as a driving force for global economic growth in the medium term, as a result of proactive support, stimulative policies, and the private sector’s appetite for risk.
The analysis issued by Qatar National Bank (QNB) indicated that China was the most important driver of global economic growth since the global financial crisis in the period 2008-2009, and accounted for nearly 40% of global growth, since the global financial crisis, until 2019, before it The pandemic is leading to significant shifts in macroeconomic dynamics across different countries.
The restrictions imposed due to the pandemic led to a decline in the gross domestic product in dollars, indicating that the reopening process this year was not sufficient to achieve positive growth in the dollar, due to the decline in the value of the Chinese yuan by 8%, so far.
However, the analysis, according to Qatar News Agency (QNA), expected that China would maintain a moderate growth rate in the dollar, amounting to about 6% annually, over the next several years, which is significantly higher than global growth, which is expected to reach 4.5%.
The analysis suggested that China will continue to achieve higher levels of per capita income and productivity, and this would be supportive of global growth, indicating that there are three main factors that support this more moderate view of China’s contribution to growth in the future, despite the slow pace of its economy’s growth. It remains strong for any large economy.
The analysis indicated that China’s GDP expanded from 2008 to 2023, from $4.6 trillion to $17.7 trillion, increasing its share of global GDP from 7 to 17%.
This means, according to the analysis, that for every 1% of GDP growth that China achieves now, it adds approximately $200 billion to the global economy, compared to about $5 billion in the past, and then if China maintains 6% growth In the medium term, it will add more than a trillion dollars to the global economy every year.
China is currently working to change its macroeconomic policy from neutrality to support or facilitation, through measures including lowering interest rates, pumping liquidity, financial spending on infrastructure projects, supporting the private sector, and attracting foreign direct investment.
The analysis confirmed that a large part of the current stagnation in activity weakens investor morale, indicating that the new measures and stimulus plans being implemented could improve morale.
Official data showed that China’s current account surplus reached $208.9 billion in the first nine months of this year.
Wang Chunying, spokeswoman for the authority, said that the ratio of the current account surplus against the gross domestic product reached 1.6% during this period, indicating that the Chinese economy has maintained its recovery trend and growth momentum, which will continue to support the basic balance in the balance of payments.
2023-11-04 10:06:06
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