“China’s Priorities in the Russo-Ukrainian War: Maximizing Diplomatic Goals and Strategic Benefits”

U.S.Voice of China published today a report about China’s mediation by Washington think tank scholar Sun YunRusso-Ukrainian WarThe article pointed out that in response to changes in the international situation, China’s top priority is not to end the war as soon as possible. The delay of the war is also good for China, including allowingRussiaIncrease dependence and hold back the United States.

Sun Yun, currently director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a think tank in Washington DC, pointed out in an article that China has launched a series of diplomatic mediations on the Russia-Ukraine war since the beginning of this year.First, on February 24 this year, on the first anniversary of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the “About the Political Solution” was announced.UkraineChina’s Position on Crisis” document, followed by Chinese PresidentXi JinpingVisit Russia in late March.

On April 26, Xi Jinping had a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Three weeks later, China’s special representative on Eurasian affairs and former Chinese ambassador to Russia, Li Hui, visited Ukraine, Poland, and Russia. Wait for 5 countries.

However, behind these diplomatic actions, China does not have much hope that the war will end in the near future, such as within this year.

The article pointed out that according to China’s analysis, there are at least three reasons. One is the currentFor Russia or Ukraine, the war has not yet exhausted each otherso neither side is willing to return to the negotiating table;Neither side has the will to end the war, Zelensky has repeatedly stated that he will never surrender territory in exchange for ending the war. But many Chinese analysts believe that ending the war would require Ukraine to give up some of its territory.

Third, China believesNATO, including the United States, has been providing weapons and aid to Ukraine so that the war cannot endAt the same time, what makes the Chinese side even more worried is that China did not provide military aid to Russia, but was labeled as “supporting Russia”.

Sun Yun believes that a series of associations about relations between major powers, balance of power, and strategic competition arose from this, which affected China’s judgment on the conditions for ending the war.

Sun Yun pointed out that in 2022, China wants the war to end quickly, because the international pressure on China suddenly increased after the outbreak of the war, and it is difficult to draw a line with Russia in the face of Western countries’ demands to condemn Russia. Therefore, China had expected the Russo-Ukraine war to end quickly, thereby improving China’s external political environment and economic relations.

However, by 2023, the international situation will change, and China will face less international pressure. For example, Europe will shift from opposing China’s position in the Russia-Ukraine War to seeking China’s support, putting pressure on Russia and playing a constructive role in ending the war. It has increased China’s diplomatic leverage with Europe, in order to strive for Europe’s neutrality in the competition between the United States and China.

So at present, for China, the most important thing is not to end the war as soon as possible, but how to maximize the diplomatic strategic goals in the war. This includes enlisting the support of Europe, shaping China’s “neutral and honest” diplomatic mediation image, and demonstrating the core wisdom and major achievements of Xi Jinping’s “Global Security Initiative”.

According to Sun Yun, the protraction of the Russo-Ukraine war will be both a challenge and a benefit to China. Objectively speaking, the uncertainty of the international environment, the disruption of the global supply chain, the pressure on China’s diplomacy, and the further intensification of international political struggles all pose major challenges and potential harm to China.

But on the other hand, Russia’s inevitable decline and dependence on China will expand China’s influence in Central Asia, the Arctic, and other parts of the world. The competition between the United States and China has to take into account the constraints of China and Russia, which will bring benefits to China .