“China’s peace plan for Ukraine: Will Xi Jinping’s friendship with Putin hinder or help?”

China’s special envoy Li Hui is in Europe, as a trade traveler for peace in Ukraine. Everyone is listening, but no one is buying China’s peace plan without reservation.

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Finally, China has sent a high-ranking representative to Ukraine. Li Hui met, among others, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba during the two-day visit to Kyiv. Ukraine praises China’s initiative, but Li received a clear message about where the border is:

Ukraine will not accept any proposal that implies that they have to give up their own lands in order to get peace.

When President Xi Jinping visited his “dear friend” Vladimir Putin in Moscow in March, they discussed China’s peace plan. Not unexpectedly, Putin was more positive, if vague, when discussing Xi’s plan. He said it could form the basis for agreement in Ukraine, but only when Kyiv and the West are ready.

In reality, neither Ukraine nor Russia are ready to negotiate a ceasefire, much less a lasting peace agreement.

In recent days, Russia has carried out some of the biggest missile and drone attacks against Kyiv since the invasion. Ukraine announces a major spring offensive to regain control over Russian-occupied areas.

Li Hui was China’s ambassador in Moscow for a decade. He wrote at the time about how important it was for China that Russia is a powerful nation. Before returning home in 2019, he received an Order of Friendship from Putin. During his visit to Ukraine, Li Hui could see with his own eyes how Russia uses military force against the neighboring country.

The reason why Ukraine refers to China’s initiative as important is that in the future they will need security guarantees from the great powers. No foreign leader has more influence in Moscow than Xi Jinping. China can put pressure on Russia. The Chinese have not yet done that. That can change. The price of being Putin’s friend may be too high.

Xi’s close partnership with Putin has become a burden for China, compared to all the European countries that support Ukraine’s cause. Li Hui is in Europe in an attempt to repair the damage. He also visits Poland, Germany and France, as well as Russia.

A few days ago, the EU’s foreign ministers met in Stockholm to discuss a changed China strategy. The relationship with China is complicated. The Asian superpower is perceived as an economic competitor and political rival, but also as a partner in some areas.

Europe paid a high price for its dependence on Russian energy. The EU countries agree that they must not make the same mistake in relation to China. Democracies cannot depend on critical supplies from authoritarian regimes.

At the EU summit this summer, the heads of government will try to agree on a common approach. It caused a stir when French President Emmanuel Macron recently visited Beijing and said that Europe should not blindly follow the US in its view of China. Europe must develop “strategic independence” and do what serves its own interests, Macron said.

It suits China perfectly. Beijing wants Europe to break away from its close ties to the United States. But Xi’s friendship with Putin and the ongoing war are creating problems for China’s diplomacy. Therefore, China is trying to come up with a peace plan.

One of the reasons they are not successful is that China claims to be something it is not, a neutral broker. China has not condemned the Russian invasion and has instead expressed understanding of Putin’s rationale for going to war.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has spoken with Putin many times during the war. They maintain that they have a partnership without borders. It took 14 months after the Russian invasion for Xi to call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi. Li’s trip to Kyiv is a positive step, but far from enough to be perceived as a neutral party in the conflict. And it does not bring the parties closer to a truce.

A ceasefire in the current situation would strengthen Russia’s grip on a fifth of Ukraine’s territory. The result will be a frozen conflict. It will then only be a matter of time before the war flares up again.

Xi launched the twelve-point peace plan on the anniversary of Russia’s invasion. One of the points states that national sovereignty must be respected. Putin does not. Yet Xi has not followed through on demanding Russian military withdrawal from occupied Ukrainian land.

If China really wants to stop the war in Ukraine, Xi must put pressure on the one who started it. It will be an important contribution to peace.