As Southeast Asia seeks to establish itself as a peaceful, cooperative and stable region, nuclear disarmament becomes an important issue. In 1995, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) adopted the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) treaty, with the aim of keeping the region free from nuclear weapons. However, convincing major powers to abide by this treaty has proved to be a challenging task for ASEAN. Despite their commitments to promote peace and security in the region, major powers such as the United States, China, Russia and North Korea continue to develop nuclear arsenals amid tensions in the region. In this article, we explore the challenges faced by ASEAN in convincing major powers to abide by the SEANWFZ treaty and the potential implications of their failure to do so.
China’s Plan to Sign the ASEAN Nuclear Weapon-Free Protocol
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a political-economic union of ten countries in Southeast Asia. The ASEAN member states have been working towards promoting regional peace, security, and cooperation, and one of the ways they have achieved this is through the creation of nuclear-free zones. In 1995, 10 ASEAN member states signed the Southeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty (SEANWFZ) or the Bangkok Treaty, which declared the region free of nuclear weapons. However, some of the major nuclear-armed countries are yet to ratify this treaty.
Recently, China has expressed its plan to sign the protocol for ASEAN’s nuclear weapon-free zone treaty, which would be a significant step towards regional peace and disarmament. This decision has been welcomed by the ASEAN member states and could lead to other powerful countries following China’s lead.
China’s expressed desire to sign the ASEAN protocol has been interpreted differently among experts. Some see it as a positive move towards promoting regional peace, while others see it as China’s strategy to consolidate its power in the region. However, despite the differing interpretations, most experts agree that convincing other nuclear-armed states to follow China’s example will be a challenging feat.
Countries like the United States, Russia, and North Korea are unlikely to sign the ASEAN protocol anytime soon. These countries have been investing heavily in their nuclear programs for decades, and signing the treaty could mean a step back from their strategic military power. The nuclear-armed countries see their nuclear deterrence as a guarantee of national security and their strategic dominance in the international arena. Therefore, convincing these countries to get rid of their nuclear stockpiles places a significant challenge.
Additionally, the ASEAN treaty’s success will depend on how the treaty is implemented and enforced. Nuclear weapon states may find it convenient to bypass the ASEAN protocol by forming strategic partnerships and agreements with non-nuclear-weapon states in the region, such as India, which is also a nuclear state but is not a member of ASEAN. Therefore, the ASEAN states need to demonstrate how they can guarantee regional security without nuclear weapons, as the nuclear-armed states use their nuclear deterrence as a pre-requisite for security.
In conclusion, China’s expressed intent to sign the protocol for ASEAN’s nuclear weapon free zone treaty is a positive step towards regional disarmament and peace. However, the success of the treaty depends on how well it is implemented, and whether other nuclear-armed states will follow suit. The ASEAN member states need to demonstrate how they can ensure regional security without nuclear weapons and persuade the other nuclear-armed states to reconsider their nuclear programs.
