A Pragmatic Foreign Policy Approach

The discussion around U.S.foreign policy in the region gained traction following statements made by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio before the senate Foreign Relations Commitee in January. Rubio pledged that under President Donald Trump, the State Department’s top priority would be the United States. He afterward argued for a pragmatic foreign policy aimed at making America more secure, “stronger and more prosperous.”

some analysts interpret this approach as an chance to address the growing Chinese influence in the asia-Pacific, especially in Myanmar. Since the 2021 military coup, the ruling junta has increasingly relied on Beijing for economic and military support, creating a situation that demands a strategic response from the United States.

Myanmar’s Strategic Importance

Hunter Marston, a researcher at the Australian National University, believes that Rubio recognizes Myanmar’s strategic importance in the U.S.-China rivalry.Marston suggests that this recognition could lead to a review of existing U.S. policy and an exploration of adjustments to make U.S. engagement in Southeast asia more effective.

I do think there’s the possibility that the State Department will have some high-level interest in Myanmar.
Hunter Marston, Australian National University

Marston further elaborated, “This could be an opportunity, as I’ve argued in my commentaries for the Stimson Center, to review existing policy, assess its failures and explore adjustments that could make U.S. engagement in Southeast Asia more effective.”

Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asia security expert at the National War College, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that Myanmar is central to the U.S.-China competition. “Southeast Asia is where the United States and China compete most directly, and this is, in particular, true in Myanmar,” he said.

Abuza highlighted Myanmar’s critical location at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia,which is vital for regional security and economic stability. He also warned about China’s expanding presence in Rakhine State, including the advancement of deep-sea ports, which raises meaningful security concerns.

If there’s ever a military conflict with China over Taiwan,for example,the oil and gas pipelines that supply Kunming will be very vital.
Zachary Abuza, National War College

Abuza added that China and Russia are leveraging Myanmar to project power in the Indian Ocean, further underscoring the need for a robust U.S. response. “We do not want the Chinese to build up or have access to ports in Rakhine,” Abuza stated.”we would like the Russians not to be able to pull into Yangon port.”

The Rare Earth Element Factor

Another critical aspect of Myanmar’s strategic importance lies in its reserves of rare earth elements, which are essential for high-tech industries. Abuza pointed out that China has a near monopoly on the reprocessing of these elements,posing a national security threat to the United States.

China has a near monopoly, maybe not in mining anymore, but in reprocessing. This is an absolute national security threat to the United States.
Zachary Abuza, national War College

Data indicates that China obtains approximately 40% of its rare earths from Kachin State in Myanmar. The International Energy Agency reports that Myanmar’s share of global rare earth production rose considerably from 0.2% to 14% between 2015 and 2023.

Global Witness, an institution focused on human rights and environmental abuses, reports that China’s imports from Myanmar reached $1.4 billion in 2023. Furthermore,China controls 90% of global rare earth processing,highlighting its dominance in this critical sector.

China’s Growing Foothold in Myanmar

As the 2021 coup, the junta’s reliance on China has intensified as international sanctions isolate Myanmar. Marston noted that China has expanded its influence in the country, with ethnic armed groups also recognizing Beijing’s interests.

A Pacific forum paper revealed that China prioritized rakhine state for its Belt and Road Initiative, seeking to tap into natural resources and gain access to the Bay of Bengal. This initiative underscores China’s strategic interest in Myanmar’s geographical location and resources.

Nyunt than, president of the Burmese American Democratic Alliance, emphasized that Myanmar’s strategic role extends beyond infrastructure and shapes China’s broader regional ambitions. He explained that Beijing aims to transform Yunnan province into a major transportation and trade hub for Southeast Asia, including plans for a high-speed railway connecting Kunming to the region.

Another key issue is China’s internal economic disparity. While coastal regions are highly developed, the inland areas lag significantly behind.
Nyunt Than, Burmese american Democratic Alliance

The US Regional Focus and ASEAN’s Role

Marston argued that the U.S.reluctance to back Myanmar’s resistance, fearing provocation of China, has inadvertently enabled Beijing’s advancement in the country. He stated that China has incrementally expanded its influence and presence in Myanmar, irrespective of U.S.policy.

During his January confirmation hearing, Rubio underscored the strategic role of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations).On his first day as secretary of state, he met with Quad partners – India, Japan, and Australia – to discuss strategies to counter China’s influence in the region. this engagement signals Washington’s recognition of the region’s strategic importance.

Activists like Nyunt Than view Rubio’s remarks and actions as evidence that U.S. policymakers understand Myanmar’s significance. “From Rubio’s remarks and how he views ASEAN, it is indeed evident that U.S. policymakers understand Myanmar’s significance,” he said.

Experts, including Abuza, are optimistic that Rubio’s regional knowledge could lead to a more robust U.S. policy in the region. “I think Secretary of State Rubio has a very good understanding of Southeast Asia,” Abuza said.

He is well aware of what communist governments are capable of and willing to do to advance their interests.
Zachary Abuza, National war College

Marston concurred that Washington should engage more stakeholders, including ethnic armed groups seeking a federal democracy, as China’s involvement will persist regardless of U.S. policy.”China is going to be involved weather or not

Myanmar’s Geopolitical Tightrope: A Balancing Act Between US Influence and China’s Growing Power

Is Myanmar’s strategic location the key to understanding the escalating US-China power struggle in Southeast Asia?

Interview with Dr. Anya Sharma, Professor of International Relations, Georgetown University

Senior Editor (SE): Dr. Sharma, welcome. The US seems increasingly concerned about China’s expanding influence in Myanmar. How significant is this geopolitical chess game, and what’s at stake?

Dr. Sharma (DS): The situation in Myanmar represents a critical juncture in the broader US-China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific. Myanmar’s geographical location, its natural resources, especially rare earth elements crucial for high-tech industries, and its potential role in regional connectivity initiatives like China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) make it a highly coveted prize. The stakes are high: control over myanmar directly impacts regional stability, access to vital resources, and the broader balance of power in Southeast Asia. Failure to address China’s growing influence in Myanmar coudl have severe implications for US interests and global security.

SE: Let’s unpack the “rare earth element” factor. How impactful are Myanmar’s reserves,and what role does China play in this specific area?

DS: Myanmar possesses considerable reserves of rare earth elements (REEs),crucial for advanced technologies ranging from smartphones and electric vehicles to military hardware. china currently dominates the global REE processing industry, creating a potential vulnerability for the US and its allies. Their near-monopoly on processing gives Beijing significant leverage over the supply chain and allows them to exert geopolitical influence.Myanmar’s REE deposits offer China the chance to further consolidate its control over these essential materials, posing a substantial national security risk to the United States and its allies. the US needs to explore option sourcing and refining of REEs to mitigate this dependency.

SE: The 2021 military coup considerably altered the geopolitical landscape. How has this event shaped china’s involvement, and what are the implications for the US?

DS: The coup deepened Myanmar’s reliance on China, creating a dangerous dependence on Beijing for economic and military support. International sanctions imposed on the junta strengthened China’s position and provided Beijing with an opening to expand its influence across various sectors. The coup fundamentally altered the internal dynamics within Myanmar, providing fertile ground for Chinese influence to flourish. The implications for the US are significant, including loss of regional influence and a potential increase in instability that could spill over into neighboring areas.The U.S. needs a nuanced approach, that avoids provoking further instability whilst actively promoting democratic principles and regional security.

SE: Manny experts advocate for increased US engagement in Southeast Asia, particularly concerning Myanmar. What form should this engagement take?

DS: Increased US engagement should be multi-pronged. First, a strengthened diplomatic effort to address human rights violations and press for a return to democratic governance in Myanmar is vital. Diplomatic pressure alone might be insufficient; hence, second, carefully calibrated economic measures that incentivize positive changes while minimizing unintended harm should be considered. Third, cooperation with ASEAN and other regional partners, is crucial. These partners are vital for coordinating regional responses to the crisis and discouraging further Chinese encroachment. Finally, supporting civil liberties and other positive developments within Myanmar is vital in the long term. This means supporting civil society, democratic opposition groups and promoting human rights. This engagement must be strategic and patient, recognizing that any positive shift requires a long-term outlook. Using targeted sanctions and supporting pro-democratic forces more directly then in the past will be vital.

SE: What role does ASEAN play, and what are the potential pitfalls of a US-centric approach towards the situation?

DS: ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian nations) plays a critical mediating role, but its effectiveness is often limited by the principle of non-interference in member states’ internal affairs. A US-centric approach risks alienating ASEAN members who prefer a more multilateral, regionally-led solution. Therefore balancing the need for US leadership with respect for ASEAN’s prerogatives is critical.Close collaboration with ASEAN, with an understanding of the intricacies of Southeast Asian politics, is vital to maintain regional stability and discourage further escalation.

SE: what would be your key takeaway for our readers regarding the nuanced relationship between the US and China in Myanmar?

DS: Myanmar is not merely a bilateral issue between the US and China; it’s a critical test of regional stability and the broader US-China power struggle in the Indo-Pacific. The US needs a comprehensive strategy incorporating diplomatic engagement,targeted economic levers,strong partnerships with regional actors,and a commitment to long-term support for the people of Myanmar. A balanced approach, that prioritizes both regional stability and democratic goals, is essential to counteract China’s growing influence and protect US interests. It is crucial that the US carefully consider its options and adopt long-term strategies while supporting the people of Myanmar.We need a strategy that considers both soft and hard power, and accounts for the myriad of regional parties with diverse interests. The future of Myanmar holds significant ramifications for the entire region and its resolution will involve many stakeholders. I encourage our readers to engage in the conversation and share your insights and perspectives through the comment section below.