Ge Long, a well-known Chinese economist, recently analyzed in detail the current situation of China’s economic difficulties on the channel “Talking about Stocks, Talking about Money and Talking about Money”. The relevant video received enthusiastic attention from Chinese netizens, but was subsequently deleted.
The news survey of the These key data have basically been “returned to zero” in today’s China.
Gron pointed out the “three zeros” phenomenon in China’s economic external cycle and called on the public to be highly vigilant about this and not to be confused.
The first is “people tend to zero”. In the first quarter of 2019, before the large-scale outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, more than 3.7 million people traveled to China from abroad; however, the data for the first quarter of 2023 was only 52,000, which is even higher than that of 2019. Less than a fraction; of the 52,000 inbound tourists, 56% are from Hong Kong and 22% are from Macau, representing only about 10,000 real “foreigners” from other countries.
Gron believes that this means that China may fall back into a state of blockade that no one cares about, just like it did in the 1970s, but the difference is that this time it is not that China does not want others to come, but that others do not want to come.
Then came “flights approaching zero.” Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, there were more than 3,800 flights between China and the United States every month, and an average of more than 100 flights a day; now there are only 4 to 6 direct flights between China and the United States every day, which has basically reached zero. Gronn emphasized that over the past 70 years, 70% of China’s total foreign trade surplus came from the United States.
Finally, “money goes to zero”. Statistics show that in the first quarter of last year, foreign direct investment in China was US$101.2 billion (approximately NT$3,194.4 billion); in the second quarter of this year, foreign investment in Chinese enterprises was only US$4.9 billion (approximately NT$154.65723 billion). Taiwan dollar), which is the lowest value since the 1998 Southeast Asian financial crisis.
Another data is that China will only have 8 foreign currency funds raised in 2023; while there were 114 funds in the same period last year; and 792 funds in the same period the year before last. As of the first half of 2023, China-focused private equity funds have raised only US$1.4 billion (approximately NT$44.18778 billion). Compared with the nearly US$50 billion (approximately NT$1,578.1 billion) in the first half of 2021, this data is basically zero.
Gron concluded that the flow of people, logistics and capital are the three cores of economic development. The reason why the above-mentioned external key data “shrunk to zero” needs to be analyzed clearly. If it is caused by the epidemic, there will still be opportunities for correction and adjustment, but if it is caused by trade wars and political frictions, it means that the Chinese economy has undergone a “structural reversal of long-term change trends”, which may really be the problem of this generation of Chinese people. “The weight is unbearable.”
Gelong, whose real name is Chen Shouhong, is a famous Chinese economist and the founder of the global investment research platform “Gelonghui”.
China’s economy may really become an “island economy” and be forced to “internally circulate”.
The relevant video received enthusiastic attention from Chinese netizens, but was subsequently deleted.
This time it’s not that China doesn’t want others to come, but that others don’t want to come.
Under the leadership of Xi Jinping (pictured), China’s economy may really become an “island economy” and be forced to “internally circulate”. Several key data have basically “returned to zero.” Picture: Reprinted from CCTV (file photo)
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2024-02-26 03:06:25
