Data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in January 2024, affected by the festival effect, residents’ consumer demand continued to increase, and the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.3% month-on-month, rising for two consecutive months; affected by the wrong month of the Spring Festival in the same period last year Compared with the impact of a higher base, the year-on-year decrease was 0.8%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-on-month, which was consistent with the average level for the same period in the past 10 years; it rose 0.4% year-on-year, maintaining a moderate increase.
Zhang Xuewu, director of the Analysis and Forecasting Department of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, analyzed that in January, rain, snow and freezing weather occurred in many places in China, and as the Spring Festival approached, prices of fresh vegetables and aquatic products increased, pork prices stabilized, and food prices increased slightly month-on-month. . International oil prices first rose and then fell, causing domestic refined oil prices to fall slightly by about 1% month-on-month. As the Spring Festival travel season begins, migrant workers return to their hometowns, tourism travel increases, and demand for pre-holiday services increases. The prices of air tickets, tourism, housekeeping and other services have increased.
From a year-on-year perspective, CPI fell by 0.8%, a decline that expanded by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said: “The year-on-year decline has expanded, mainly because the Spring Festival last year was in January, coupled with the increase in consumer demand after the epidemic prevention and control period in the same period, resulting in a higher comparison base last year.”
Pang Ming, chief economist and director of the research department of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, believes that the CPI has increased month-on-month for two consecutive months, indicating that consumer prices have continued to steadily ease, and social effective demand has maintained a moderate recovery momentum.
In January, affected by factors such as international commodity price fluctuations and some domestic industries entering the traditional off-season for production, the national PPI declined month-on-month and year-on-year, but the declines narrowed. From a month-on-month perspective, PPI fell by 0.2%, and the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. From a year-on-year perspective, PPI fell by 2.5%, and the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
Zhang Xuewu said that from a month-on-month perspective, with the Spring Festival approaching in January, some project construction and production activities have entered the off-season, and the prices of industrial products have declined slightly. From a year-on-year perspective, international commodity prices have generally fallen. Under the influence of imported factors, domestic PPI has declined year-on-year. Affected by the slowdown in external demand growth, prices in export-related industries such as electrical machinery and communications electronics fell to varying degrees, affecting the PPI to fall by 0.6 percentage points.
Pang Ming believes that CPI may still fluctuate at low levels in the short term, but in the context of macro-policy improvement, expansion, efficiency enhancement, and coordination, as economic momentum and the endogenous power of market entities continue to recover and improve, from the perspective of the whole year CPI will rebound moderately, and the path for PPI to turn from negative to positive is relatively clear. In the medium term, the inflation center will gradually recover amid fluctuations and return to normal levels.
2024-02-11 01:46:00
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