In the last few hours, while the Russian invasion of Ukraine proceeding, China has maintained a cautious and rather ambiguous position on the actions of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Among other things, the Chinese government has refused to recognize the Russian military operation as an “invasion”, and will not participate in the economic sanctions announced by the international community: on the contrary, China’s economic support could help Russia to bear the sanctions westerners.
China’s attitude has several reasons: the government wants to limit the damage to its economy as much as possible, preserve relations with economic partners, including both Russia and various Western countries, and also carefully study what is happening in Ukraine: the Western reaction to the invasion, including other things, it could provide clues to Chinese President Xi Jinping as to how things could go if China decides to take military action against Taiwan in the future. Several observers in recent days have wondered if, after Ukraine, the next democratic territory will be invaded by a great regime it could be Taiwan.
The ambiguity of the Chinese position towards the ongoing war was noted by various observers, especially in relation to two factors. The first is that China has not called Putin’s operation in Ukraine an invasion, starting with Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying, who refused to talk about the invasion and condemn it at a press conference Thursday. Russian military action. Even the media and Chinese state television continue to define Russia as a “special military operation”, which is how Putin himself defined the invasion.
The second occasion when the ambiguity of the Chinese position emerged very clearly was when the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, first said that China has always respected the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries (thus apparently taking parts of Ukraine), but then added that, in the specific case of Ukraine, he recognized the complexity of the situation and Russia’s “legitimate security concerns”.
In practice, while maintaining a certain neutrality in words, China is in fact sharing Russia’s version of events, according to which the invasion of Ukraine would be a military operation to bring peace to the country.
According to various analysts and observers, this attitude is explained by the fact that – as on other occasions, for example when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 – the ongoing conflict puts China in a somewhat uncomfortable and difficult position. A position in which, as he explained to Politico Evan Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace study center, China is trying to coexist some apparently irreconcilable objectives.
Among these, to ensure that the current crisis damages its economy as little as possible, for example due to sanctions that the United States and the European Union will choose to impose on Russia (sanctions that could also affect China, if concerned all states that do business with Russia); China’s economic interests also depend on the possibility of continuing to trade with Ukraine, which among other things is an important one crossing point of the so-called “new silk road”, that is the enormous Chinese investment program for the construction of commercial infrastructures, fundamental for the expansion of the influence of China in the world.
More generally, China has every interest in maintaining a relationship that is at least cordial, rather than openly conflictual, with the West, of which it is at the same time a political rival and an economic partner.
On the other hand, China also wants to maintain its relationship with Russia. Which is a very close relationship: last year, during a meeting in Moscow, Chinese leader Xi Jinping described Putin as his “best friend“; and about twenty days ago, when the crisis on the Ukrainian border was reaching its peak, the two countries defined «without limitsTheir cooperation.
In fact, although the ways in which they intend to achieve it may vary, China and Russia also share the goal of “unhinging the Atlanticist-led system and changing the terms and conditions of international relations”, as he wrote Giulia Pompili, journalist of Sheet.
Some observers therefore expect that, while maintaining somewhat cautious public positions, China is ready to help Russia, for example. supporting it economically to face the big sanctions that the United States and the European Union will impose on it in response to the invasion of Ukraine, again as has happened in the past. Among other things, China could offer the Russian economy ways to escape these sanctions – it has been developing them in recent years some particularly effective (as did Russia itself in part, but it is economically much less competitive of China).
But China’s apparently cautious attitude also has another reason: according to various analyzes, China is looking very carefully at what is happening in Ukraine because, even with large differences between the two countries (both historical and in the reality of campo), some elements of the current Ukrainian crisis could apply to Taiwan, the small independent island that China regards as its own. China has been claiming sovereignty on the island for decades, which is a vibrant democracy, a prosperous economy and self-governing independently since 1949. For President Xi Jinping, reuniting Taiwan with China is an inalienable goal, to which he has repeatedly referred in various public speeches.
OnAtlanticthe American journalist expert on Asia Michael Shuman he wrote that a victory by Russia in Ukraine could convince Chinese leader Xi Jinping, in a future far from immediate for now, to imagine more easily being able to do the same in Taiwan.
This would explain the reactions of Taiwan itself, as well as Japan, to Putin’s actions in Ukraine. Taiwan, geographically very far from Ukraine, was one of the first countries to publicly condemn the invasion of Ukraine as a violation of international agreements, as well as a declare immediately, the day after the invasion, to want to join the United States and the European Union in imposing economic sanctions on Russia. Japan too, worried both for Taiwan and for the Senkaku Islands (disputes with China), he has shown himself ready to impose heavy economic sanctions.
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