China remains the most populous country in the world, But for how long ? The publication, Tuesday, May 11, of the census figures for the period 2010-2020 indicates a very slight demographic growth (0.53%). Far from 1 to 3% throughout the XXe century.
It is not so much the decrease in its population that worries China but its aging,
analysis Isabelle Attané, demographer specializing in China at INED (National Institute for Demographic Studies). The country’s economic growth was made from its labor, abundant and low cost. However, by 2050, it will lose around 250 million people of working age.
Aware of the problem, China has for several years been refocusing its economy on domestic consumption. Its citizens must still have the means to do so. This is what the demographer explains:Japan experienced the same demographic stage as China some 20 years ago. But it was already a rich country, and its older population remained part of the economy thanks to its purchasing power. However, China, although endowed with the second largest GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in the world, is only at 72e rank of GDP per capita. Most retirees have barely enough to support themselves and their children may be financially supportive of them.
The end of the one-child policy has not changed anything
Long limited by the one-child policy, couples can, since 2015, have two children. But lifting this restriction did not have the desired effect on the population. On average, there are 1.3 children per woman (compared to 1.8 in France). Since 2016, the number of births has been declining every year and 2020 was the worst year since 1961. Having a child is very expensive in China,
recalls Isabelle Attané. The school system, comparable to that of the United States, is very expensive. Parents want the best for their child, so they are doing one thing to give them the best possible chance. Because the Chinese of the middle class do not have the means to pay all this to several children.
To this are added selective abortions of female fetuses, practiced since the 1990s. In question, the desire to “perpetuate the lineage” by having a boy. According to the demographer, this represents nearly 20 million aborted babies in three decades. And so many less potential mothers.
To have more children to have a better social grade?
If the government made a commitment in 2015 to curb this scourge, it still has to find effective measures to boost the birth rate. Many countries try to imitate what is done in France. The care system for young children is accessible to most households, there are family allowances and tax measures favorable to large families. China could a minima, be inspired by it,
believes Isabelle Attané.Personally, I am not very optimistic because it is not impossible that something will be done with the system of social credit put in place
(Editor’s note: a citizen rating system, which limits or authorizes access to certain services depending on the rating). Having children would award more points. It’s still a guess, but I think the Chinese government is authoritarian enough to do this.
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