During a dinner on November 9 in Washington, organized by the United States-China National Relations Committee, the Chinese ambassador read a letter from President Xi Jinping. It was a letter revealing China’s readiness to “strengthen exchanges and cooperation in all fields” with the United States and to put relations between the two countries back on track.
At the same time, we learned that a videoconference would be held between Xi and President Joe Biden within two weeks. Given the rhetorical passes and military heatstrokes that have characterized the US-China dialogue so far, it was expected that the situation would deteriorate further, or even turn into open war.
US President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a virtual summit from the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC on November 15, 2021
MANDEL NGAN / AFP
The message is significant as it seems to indicate China’s desire to change course. Whether it was a decision Xi made, forced on him, or just a simple trial balloon doesn’t matter at this point. The door has been opened and the U-turn considered.
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If such announcements made at dinner parties in Washington are generally not very significant, here we must pay attention because it is part of a sequence of perilous confrontation between two powers. It should be noted above all that the letter speaks of the United States and China as two world powers. China emphasizes the parity of the two countries, stressing that China can change its tone and policy, but that it does not intend to capitulate. This essential point makes the letter all the more credible.
Make believe that a war is possible
The transition to open hostility has accelerated with the demand of the United States to enter the Chinese market on terms comparable to those of China in the United States. China refused to comply, which resulted in the imposition of tariffs on Beijing. Meanwhile, China has stepped up its military aggressiveness, demanding the United States leave the South China Sea and threatening Taiwan with an invasion.
The plan of the Chinese is to make Americans believe that a war is perfectly possible and to force them to accept their objectives on all fronts, while recalling that a war with China would not be in Washington’s interest. Over time, the Chinese have also exploited the military question to increase their international stature.
A Chinese navy soldier stands guard in front of the Qiandaohu ship in Gdynia, Poland, October 7, 2015
afp.com/Adam Warzawa
As I have said in the past, this is just a bluff. The threat to Taiwan hinges on the idea that China could send its forces across the Taiwan Strait and successfully supply logistics despite attacks from US submarines and missiles. It may be possible, but the risk of defeat is too high for Beijing to attempt such a poker move. Likewise, forcing the United States out of the South China Sea seems unlikely. In fact, the commercial situation, like the military, is frozen.
All of this is accompanied by a major change in the Chinese financial system. China’s financial foundation – real estate – has been shaken by the bankruptcy of a national juggernaut, Evergrande, whose repercussions are now being felt across the country’s economy. This crisis raises serious doubts on the side of investors, American or not, who have played a key role in China’s economic development. The caution or reluctance of foreign investors is likely to worsen the financial crisis, which is now translating into shortages in China or elsewhere in the world.
That the United States does not intend to attack China makes perfect sense. Likewise, it has always been clear that venturing into a war with the United States would be risky at best for Beijing. The risks of defeat outweigh the possible benefits of a victory, as the first would have had incalculable national consequences.
The construction of a site that is both residential, commercial and entertainment undertaken by Evergrande in Taicang, in Jiangsu province, on September 17, 2021.
afp.com/Vivian LIN
All this makes the military option less credible today than it has ever been. And this, at a time when the strategy of intimidation has clearly failed. The United States has not surrendered, and the status quo on military and trade matters has not budged an iota. However, the economic situation in China has deteriorated.
China is therefore faced with an alternative: play escalation by threatening American interests outside the South China Sea or bet on de-escalation, which allows it to maintain its status as a great power. Beijing seems to have adopted the latter strategy. At least that’s what his letter suggests.
The United States, on the other hand, has no interest in even a minor conflict with China – let alone a war. And, in Washington’s eyes, the current trade dispute is not that serious. The United States has far more pressing economic and social issues to resolve than trade fairness with China. If the Middle Empire accepts the status quo or even a slight change in it, the American Empire will consider itself more than satisfied.
“To put pressure on a nuclear power in full turmoil would not be very smart”
The key topic comes down to this: Beijing insists on being recognized as a great power to be treated as equals and with respect. This is the thing Xi needs in the short term to present himself as the man who restores the greatness of China. And that, only the United States can grant him. In the long run, such common ground allows China to buy time to consolidate its positions and reformulate its grievances. Some believe the United States should step up the pressure on China today to prevent it from becoming too dangerous later. But later is later. And putting pressure on a nuclear power in the midst of internal upheaval is not a very smart risk to run.
Of course, anything can go wrong. The current American political situation has enough to generate many disruptive forces. Same in China. In the United States, we can see an agreement with China as an appeasement. In China, one might think that Xi bet and lost. In my opinion, these are both equally improbable results. More likely is a development of relations in the direction of appeasement which offers both countries the respite they need.
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GEORGE FRIEDMAN : born in Budapest in 1949, heis the founder of Geopolitical Futures, a site for geopolitical analysis and forecasting. An American expert in the field of foreign affairs and intelligence, he has advised numerous government and military organizations in the United States and abroad. In 2015, George Friedman created Geopolitical Futures. Previously, in 1996, he founded Stratfor, an influential digital medium also devoted to international affairs. Finally, Georges Friedman is the author of numerous books including the bestseller The Next 100 Years,published in 2009 and praised for the accuracy of its predictions.
