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China. The modernization of nuclear deterrence is underway

(Photo: fi video Ministry of Defense Taiwan).

by Giuseppe Gagliano

China’s nuclear military modernization represents a crucial challenge to the global geopolitical and military balance. The country is strengthening its nuclear deterrence capability through the development of a triad that includes intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarines armed with nuclear warheads and strategic bombers, an initiative that marks the shift from the old defensive doctrine to a more proactive approach. China has adopted a “no first use” policy which, while emphasizing the defensive nature of its arsenal, does not exclude a devastating response in the event of a nuclear attack.
The introduction of new missiles such as the Dongfeng-41, with multiple MIRV warhead capabilities, and the Tang Type 096 class submarines armed with Juylang-3 missiles, confirms Beijing’s intent to achieve a credible second strike and strengthen its deterrence . Additionally, the Xian H-20 strategic bomber will enhance China’s ability to strike global targets more effectively. On the geopolitical front, China’s increase in nuclear capabilities is pushing US allies, such as Japan and Taiwan, to review their defense strategies, highlighting their growing vulnerability and dependence on American protection. Japan has already responded with a significant increase in its military budget, while Taiwan has yet to find an effective response. The transparency with which China has handled recent nuclear tests, in contrast to the traditional secrecy of nuclear powers, indicates a change in strategy that could impact the future of arms control diplomacy, placing Beijing in a new multipolar context in which Emerging powers, such as India, are starting to play an important role. The Chinese model of “minimal but effective” nuclear power seems to be finding more and more consensus in the Global South, where many states see China as a bulwark against Western hegemony, helping to redesign the international nuclear order.

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