ORDER: Chinese President Xi Jinping has asked the Chinese armed forces to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027. Photo: Florence Lo / AFP / NTB
The tension between China and Taiwan is increasing, which could have major consequences for Norway and Norwegians.
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Professor Øystein Tunsjø believes that there is a preponderance of probability that there will be war between China and Taiwan by 2032. China’s embassy in Norway says that they are doing their utmost to achieve a “peaceful reunification” between mainland China and Taiwan, but reserves the right to to use all necessary means. Tunsjø believes that it is possible that a Taiwan crisis could arise as early as next year. Furthermore, he believes that people in Norway must now understand that we are at the starting point of a new time period, where in the future must prioritize safety before financial interests. Show more
Professor Øystein Tunsjø at the Norwegian Defense Academy says that the probability that China will attack Taiwan militarily increases with each passing year, mainly because the military balance of power between China and the US is in China’s favour.
– If you had forced me to bet on my house, I would have bet that there will be a war between China and Taiwan by 2032, rather than that there will be no war by 2032, says Tunsjø to VG.
– With that, I consider that there will be a 50 percent probability at that point, but it also means that there will still be a fairly high probability that there will be no war.
– Do you think people in Norway share that understanding of the situation?
– No no. But there is no reason to expect that either. The most important thing is that you understand that this challenge exists, and that it grows bigger with each passing year, just as the consequences also grow bigger.
US President Joe Biden has several times declared that if China invades Taiwan, the US will defend Taiwan militarily.
– Norway is only becoming more and more dependent on trade with China, and many are tied up in a stock market that will collapse when the war breaks out. A war between China and Taiwan will have completely different consequences than the wars we are seeing in Ukraine and the Middle East now.
Despite the Ukraine war, China has safeguarded its relations with Russia. On Wednesday, Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met in Beijing, where they discussed the possibilities of further strengthening cooperation between the countries.
BET: If someone had forced Øystein Tunsjø to bet his house, he would have bet that there will be a war between China and Taiwan by 2032. Photo: Julie Holmberg / VG
“Irresponsible statements”
A spokesperson at China’s embassy in Norway maintains to VG that they will continue to do their utmost to achieve a “peaceful reunification” between mainland China and Taiwan.
“But we will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the right to use all available means. This is solely aimed at external forces and the few separatists who want ‘Taiwanese independence’ and their separatist actions,” the embassy states.
“Irresponsible statements on the Taiwan issue only create more panic and increase tension across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan is China’s Taiwan, and it is China’s task to resolve the Taiwan question – a solution that can only be achieved by Chinese people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait”.
Tunsjø believes that it is impossible for China to take control of Taiwan without using military force.
– Since Taiwan is an island, that they do not want to give up their independence and the geopolitical situation, it is impossible, he says.
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THE LINE OF FIRING: The Kinmen Islands, an archipelago that is for all practical purposes subject to Taiwan, are in danger of being in the firing line. China can be seen in the background. Photo: Tyrone Siu / Reuters / NT EXERCISE: Taiwanese forces in connection with a military exercise earlier this year. Photo: Daniel Ceng / AP / NTB MARCHING: Chinese soldiers march during a joint military exercise with Russia in 2022. Photo: Vadim Savitsky / AP / NTB
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THE LINE OF FIRING: The Kinmen Islands, an archipelago that is for all practical purposes subject to Taiwan, are in danger of being in the firing line. China can be seen in the background. Photo: Tyrone Siu / Reuters / NTB
Possible Taiwan crisis in 2024
The professor is open to the possibility that China may use military force as early as next year.
– I don’t think that China is militarily capable of invading Taiwan and succeeding in it as early as 2024. But elections will be held both in Taiwan and in the US which could trigger a crisis, which could further lead to the use of military force.
– How?
– If the presidential candidates in Taiwan start talking about a declaration of independence, for example, it will provoke the Chinese Communist Party. As a result, the Chinese can launch a large military exercise that blocks access to Taiwan, and then there will be a crisis.
He believes that such a military exercise would be larger than the one undertaken after then House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi visited the island in 2022.
– Yes, a step up from that. This could affect Taiwan’s exports of semiconductors, which would have consequences for the entire world economy. I do not believe that such a scenario will occur, but one cannot write off the possibility of it either.
2027 is also highlighted as a relevant year. This is because Chinese President Xi Jinping has asked the People’s Liberation Army to be prepared to invade Taiwan by that time. In addition, Xi’s five-year term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China and President ends that year, as well as the People’s Liberation Army’s 100th anniversary.
– New time period
If the rivalry between China and the US escalates, it could have major consequences for Norway. In a chronicle in Today’s business Tunsjø has highlighted that Norges Bank estimates that further polarization between the major powers could reduce the oil fund by 40 per cent.
– Norway has largely failed to adapt to a new era. The post-Cold War period is over. We are now in the starting pit for a new time period where the rivalry between the US and China will be the most important thing, says Tunsjø.
– From now on, safety must come before financial interests. We can no longer depend on China, we must follow a strategy that reduces the risk – especially when it comes to critical infrastructure. It will be both difficult and painful.
NEW ERA: Tunsjø says that we have now entered a new era where safety must be prioritized before economic interests. Photo: Julie Holmberg / VG
– Shaken by the Equinor case
He is particularly critical of the fact that Equinor has entered into contracts with the Chinese-owned company COSL for the rental of floating rigs, such as Today’s business has illuminated.
– I am shaken by the Equinor case. Their security assessment has been very limited, and they have not taken a position on the larger security policy picture. Nor has the government been clever enough to ensure that the obligations in the Security Act are complied with.
– Now they have ended up in the impossibility that a unanimous Storting has decided that the government must present all security-relevant information related to Equinor’s contract. It says something about how wrong one has stepped.
Responds to criticism
State Secretary Astrid Bergmål (Ap) in the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy tells VG that the Petroleum Safety Authority can supervise the industry according to the Safety Act, and that the ministry is now taking over responsibility for them.
– The government does not process this type of procurement, nor should it.
Spokesperson Gisle Ledel Johannessen in Equinor tells VG that they follow the geopolitical situation.
– We have strengthened our security measures, we follow PST’s threat assessments and meet regularly with Norwegian security authorities to ensure a common understanding of the situation and the need for further measures.
CEO Frank Tollefsen of COSL tells VG that they understand the geopolitical situation, but feel that the matter is being taken out of context.
– Our floating rigs represent a limited part of Equinor’s capacity, and our agreements do not in any way pose a risk to our customers.
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Published: 19.10.23 at 01:12
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2023-10-18 23:13:14
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