“While the Chinese army initially focused on the military resources needed to push the Americans away from their own region, in the last ten years they have mainly invested in stuff needed to take an island like Taiwan. , or to better secure the oil supply from the Middle East,” says Teer. Control over the South China Sea, and the East China Sea.
The People’s Liberation Army scores well on quantity, he continues. “The number of men, missiles, ships: China has the largest fleet in the world.” At the same time, China is grappling with a number of significant technological shortcomings.
“The Chinese are really ahead in missile technology. They have ballistic missiles that can hit aircraft carriers,” says Teer. “But they don’t yet have the qualities to build first-class jet fighters, for example, and anti-submarine warfare is also lacking. In addition, the only two aircraft carriers China has are relatively small and not nuclear-powered.” Unlike the 11 US nuclear-powered mega variants, the Chinese aircraft carriers, one of which relies on Soviet technology, require regular refueling. Especially relevant for adventures further from home.
“Winning without fighting is still preferred in Beijing,” said Shelley Rigger of increased tensions in China’s backyard, which, in Chinese eyes, is also a result of increased American activity in the region. She does not want to call the increased military display of weapons ‘the beginning of the end’. “But it is a strong signal,” she says about the Chinese flight movements.
Garanties VS
Much ultimately depends on US guarantees to Taiwan, analysts say. President Biden has in October said that America would act if China were to attack Taiwan. Before that, Washington left that aside, thinking that the possibility of US aid would be daunting enough.
“Both countries are equipped with nuclear weapons,” says Teer about the risks of a confrontation between China and the US over Taiwan. “Risk is also the scenario in which Beijing thinks: this is perhaps the best chance we get”, referring to the tilting balance of power, including by Aukus, a military alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The residents of Shantou don’t seem too worried there yet. In a small textile factory just next to the runway, the sound of spinning spinning wheels wins out over the circling aircraft. “What would I be afraid of?” says one of the employees. “Don’t worry, war is not a theme.”
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