The Chinese government does not like power gaps, especially not along its own borders, and maintaining regional stability after decades of Western presence will be a high priority for the Beijing government.
But if stability presupposes a Taliban-led government in Kabul, it could open the door for the new regime to support Muslim separatists in Xiinjiang province, for which the Chinese government has a low tolerance limit.
The Taliban have conquered large areas since the United States and NATO began their withdrawal and now claim control of 85 percent of the country. They have also taken control of border crossings with neighboring Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Pakistan.
The government in Kabul is now left with little more than a gathering of provincial capitals that largely have to get supplies and reinforcements to the airways.
Little in common
The leaders of the Communist Party in Beijing and the fundamentalist Taliban have little in common when it comes to ideology, but analysts in the region believe that a pragmatic approach from both sides opens up gains that trump the most sensitive issues.
– For China, the danger does not come from whoever was in power in Kabul, but the danger comes from persistent instability, says Fan Hongda. He is a Middle East expert at Shanghai University.
Afghanistan shares only a 76-kilometer border with China, mostly high mountains and impassable areas without any border crossings. But the border is still a delicate enme since it runs along Xinjiang province, where the oppressed Uighurs are fighting to be separated from China.
Religious agenda
– China may relate to the Taliban, but they find their religious agenda and their model of state formation very uncomfortable, says Andrew Small, author of the book The China-Pakistan Axis.
He believes the Beijing authorities are unsure how a Taliban regime will deal with issues that may arise, such as exile for wanted Uighurs.
For China, cooperation and a clear relationship with a new regime in Afghanistan mean that the new trade strategy Belte and Vei can be continued through Afghanistan and the Central Asian republics.
The Taliban, for their part, will see China as a source of investment and financial support, either directly or through Pakistan, the Taliban insurgents’ foremost protector in the region and at the same time an ally of China.
Collaborate with everyone
A Taliban spokesman said they wanted good relations with “all countries” and that those who wanted to mine, for example, were most welcome.
“The Taliban will create the conditions for that,” Suhail Shaheen told AFP.
China has already opened a dialogue. A delegation from the Taliban was received in 2019 in Beijing. This week, Foreign Minister Wand Li is leading talks on regional security in Central Asia, and an Afghanistan after the United States and NATO is among the topics.
Behind the scenes, however, there has been contact for many years via Pakistan. This has led to Chinese projects in Afghanistan avoiding attacks and sabotage. One of the projects is the huge Aynak copper mines near Kabul. Here, a Chinese company received a license all the way back in 2007, but the work in the mine has been suspended due to the civil war.
It is now conceivable that the Chinese will resume operations and that the Taliban will benefit from creating conditions and taking care of security. It has happened in many countries that China is gaining a foothold through huge capital injections, especially in extensive infrastructure projects.
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