China, NATO | Fogh Rasmussen:

– I think Fogh Rasmussen is right that the United States would certainly call for or expect NATO assistance, says NATO expert.

Former Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who is also the predecessor of NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, believes a Chinese attack on Taiwan is likely within a time frame of five to ten years.

He says this in an interview with Danish BT. He refers to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s own statements that it is desirable to reunite Taiwan and China by the 100th anniversary (in 2049) of the Chinese revolution.

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Fogh Rasmussen, former Secretary General of the NATO Defense Alliance, believes that a Chinese military offensive against Taiwan can take place as soon as five to ten years.

– The Americans have declared that if China takes seriously the threat to attack Taiwan, then it will have consequences. I have no doubt for a moment that the Americans will respond militarily, says Fogh Rasmussen to the Danish newspaper.

– It is in the light of this that one can see that NATO has begun to take an interest in China as a military threat, and if there is a military settlement, I think Europe should help the Americans. It is the future of democracy that is at stake, nothing less, says Fogh Rasmussen.

– The United States would probably expect assistance from Europe

The Norwegian NATO expert is unsure whether such an imaginary scenario could trigger NATO’s article 5, which in short indicates that an attack on one member country should be considered an attack on all member countries, and thus defended by the entire alliance.

– I think Fogh Rasmussen is right that the United States would certainly have called for or expected assistance from NATO allies in such a hypothetical situation. But then there is the question of what they can in practice contribute militarily, says senior researcher at the Department of Defense Studies, Svein Melby, to Nettavisen.

– I think the US should rather rely on support from local powers in the region such as India, Australia and not least Japan and South Korea, Melby says.

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“Having a strategy or signaling that the type of Chinese behavior towards Taiwan would trigger an American response that will be supported by US allies can be an important signal to prevent an attack in the first place,” he said.

Skeptical of the hypothesis

However, Melby is skeptical of the hypothesis that China will be able to attack Taiwan within a time frame of five to ten years.

– I doubt that. I do not think China has any political ambition to use military force against Taiwan as the geopolitical parameters exist today. Such a conflict would be a geopolitical confrontation of the highest level reached, and then it is probably expected that the United States expects assistance from allies, Melby says.

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– Some believe that a war between China and the United States is inevitable, and refer to previous great power rivalry. I do not think so. There is a huge difference between the relationship between the United States and China and the relationship between the United States and the former Soviet Union in its time. The US and China’s economies are intertwined and there are many interdependence variables that did not exist during the Cold War, says Melby.

Stoltenberg worried about China

The current Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, has previously expressed his concern about China’s growing role in the international arena.

“China’s emergence will be absolutely crucial for transatlantic society and has potential consequences for our security, prosperity and way of life,” Stoltenberg said during a security conference in Munich in February.

“That is why NATO should strengthen cooperation with close partners, such as Australia and Japan, and enter into new alliances around the world,” said Stoltenberg.

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Taiwan has been separate from China since 1949, when the Chinese Communists won the Civil War and seized power over mainland China. The nationalists, who were the losing party, sought refuge on the island of Taiwan. Taiwan is not internationally recognized as an independent and sovereign state. Taiwan also does not have membership in the UN. But the island has in practice full autonomy. China has regularly threatened to invade the island if the authorities there declare independence.

An economic Article 5

Fogh Rasmussen is the founder of the organization Alliances of Democracies. The purpose of the organization is to promote democracy and free markets around the world. Fogh Rasmussen is now calling for a new economic alliance in the West that is inspired by NATO’s mantra – an attack on one member is considered an attack on all members.

The idea is that countries that dare to stand up to China by criticizing the country’s extensive violations of human rights, will not have to stand alone when the Chinese respond with an economic and diplomatic ice front.

– I think one should develop an economic article 5 where members of the democratic alliance help each other if a single country is exposed to attacks from China, says Fogh Rasmussen.

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Norway was among the countries that felt China’s anger after the Nobel Committee awarded the Peace Prize to the now deceased Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo in 2010.

The distribution ended with a Chinese ice front against Norway that lasted for six years. Eventually, Norway and China agreed to normalize relations by signing a joint declaration. The declaration states that Norway will not criticize China’s “core interests”.

Western cooperation

Australia is another country that was hit hard by the Chinese boycott of Australian goods. It came after Australia demanded an investigation into the origin of the coronavirus.

– There, I think it would be in place with a collaboration where the West supports each other. When China pressures a country due to criticism of China, we should be able to help this country reorganize production and sales, so that it is less dependent on China, says Fogh Rasmussen.

He emphasizes the importance of Western countries daring to stand up for Western and democratic principles.

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