Aircraft carriers, destroyers, corvettes, frigates, bombers and assault aircraft surrounded Taiwan from dawn on Monday, October 14, in a new series of military exercises aimed at “warn the independence forces” of the island that Beijing claims. During this maneuver completed at the end of the day, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) mainly targeted the air bases. Taiwan had been on alert since President Lai Ching-te’s National Day speech on October 10, which proclaimed his intention to “resist annexation” whatever the cost. Between Taipei and Beijing, the war of attrition has been underway since 2016, the date of the accession to power of former President Tsai Ing-wen, of the Progressive Democratic Party (independence).
These exercises called “Joint Sword-2024B” (six months after similar exercises called “Joint Sword-2024A”) aimed to “test joint operational capabilities” of our troops, the Chinese Ministry of Defense announced Monday morning.
The operations took place “in areas to the north, south and east of the island of Taiwan”said Captain Li Xi, spokesperson for the Chinese army’s Eastern Command. The maneuvers were concentrated “ on sea-air combat readiness patrols, blockade of ports and key areas », “the assault of maritime and land targets” as well as “the joint acquisition of global superiority”.
“Irrational and provocative behavior”
The nature of these new military maneuvers, less extensive than those of last May, aimed to evaluate all Chinese capabilities in the event of an “invasion” of Taiwan or a total “blockade” of the island. They came in addition to the daily harassment of the Chinese air force and navy around Taiwan for several years which aim to provide information on the response capabilities of the Taiwanese army. A war of attrition has been underway since President Tsai Ing-wen, of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), came to power in 2016.
The Taiwanese Ministry of Defense condemned in a statement a “irrational and provocative behavior”ensuring that we have “deployed adequate forces to respond appropriately in order to protect freedom and democracy, as well as to defend sovereignty” from Taiwan. The European Union called on all parties “with restraint”.
“China has succeeded in establishing a predictable “new normal” against Taiwan analysis on his account X Derek J. Grossman, researcher at the Rand Corporation. “As we can see, Beijing is carrying out military operations around the island, simulating a blockade, to air its grievances and prepare to implement it.”
Blockade or invasion?
It is in this context that the Center for International and Strategic Studies (CISS), based in Washington, has just published a study on the strategic value of the Taiwan Strait and the economic and commercial consequences in the event of war or blockade. “Nearly $2.45 trillion worth of goods, more than a fifth of global maritime trade, passed through the Taiwan Strait in 2022, specifies the CISS, Disruptions in this trade would send shockwaves well beyond Taiwan and China, impacting key allies of the United States as well as the Global South. »
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has repeatedly made clear that the use of force remains an option to resolve the Taiwan issue, stoking fears of a possible invasion of the island. But Beijing has a range of options other than invasion, and CISS researchers warn that less kinetic actions, such as “a quarantine of Taiwan carried out by hundreds of Chinese coast guard vessels”, are more likely in the short term than an amphibious assault on the island. “Although less intense, such eventualities could nevertheless threaten the trillions of dollars of trade that passes through the Taiwan Strait each year. »
