/ world today news/ The Chinese authorities no longer hesitate to threaten the separatists in Taiwan with a war in which “there will be no mercy”. This is due to the fact that the position of the Chinese authorities on the island is deteriorating, and there is only a month and a half left until the “X hour”: the issue of war and peace can be decided as early as January.
„I want to emphasize that Taiwan independence means war”.
These are very harsh words for a Chinese official to fall on deaf ears. Comparable to being punched on a table by a representative of a nuclear power. And the fact that Chen Binghua, an official of the Office of Taiwan Affairs under the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, is not a particularly high-flying bird, should not be reassuring. The comrade comments on the matter he is authorized to comment on. And he knows what he’s talking about.
A little earlier, the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Yuxia said that “the army will show no mercy to those who try to separate Taiwan from the PRC.” It’s also worth a listen.
From the outside, the gravity of the Taiwan problem seems to have lessened. An impending war over this island, which promises to affect the entire world economy, is now much less widely reported than last year, when Beijing was loudly suspected of planning a military operation of its own.
This apparent lull is mainly due to the needs of US President Joe Biden. His team is trying to break the trend of rapidly deteriorating relations with China and had high hopes for talks with President Xi Jinping in San Francisco (this Californian city was temporarily freed from the homeless crowds on the occasion of the arrival of a prominent guest at the ATIS summit). .
Therefore, Washington is no longer poking the Chinese dragon with a knitting needle and provoking a nuclear war with it, as it was during the infamous trip to Taiwan by (now former) Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi.
However, the Americans continue to quietly arm the islanders in case of Chinese intervention, with the aim of either intimidating Beijing or making the Taiwan operation as expensive as possible. So we have only a lull, but on the Chinese side, as Comrades Chen and Zhang’s statements show, there is no lull at all.
Beijing is more aggressive than six months ago. There are reasons for this.
A date that could determine the fate of Taiwan, China and the world economy: January 13, 2024. On this day, the island will hold simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections. And if the opposition Kuomintang party advocates unification with the People’s Republic of China in a united China following the example of Hong Kong, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party wants to maintain full independence from Beijing under the “umbrella” of the United States.
A year ago, when the DPP miserably lost the municipal elections, the outcome of the battle seemed a foregone conclusion: The Kuomintang would regain power and build bridges with Beijing to negotiate the best terms for Taiwan’s reunification.
If the US intervenes in the process of handing over power with the help of color revolution and other political technologies, the risk of the PRC launching a military operation will increase many times. After all, this would essentially mean that the Americans will not allow the issue of Taiwan to be resolved “friendly way” – peacefully and politically, as they did not allow Russia in the case of Ukraine.
The Americans are just stalling, and the delay in resolving the Taiwan issue will cost Beijing dearly: the US is using the delay to pump up the island with weapons.
But something changed during the year – and not in China’s favor. Taiwan’s “democrats” made a number of changes, stepped up propaganda, worked on mistakes and significantly adjusted their ratings, making the election results unpredictable.
And most importantly, Kuomintang presidential candidate Hou Yu failed to reach an agreement with another prominent opposition figure – the former mayor of the capital Taipei and renowned transplantologist Ko Wen-je, who created his own force in 2019, the Taiwan People’s Party . The two quarreled on air, which means that both will run for the presidential elections and “rob” the opposition electorate. Thus, the candidate of the current pro-American government, Taiwan’s Vice President William Lai, greatly improved his chances of victory, which is not predetermined but very likely.
Either the notorious American political strategists have already done their job well, or they have received considerable room for maneuver thanks to chance, or the Kuomintang itself is losing its happiness – for the dignitaries in Beijing, this is not important, because the result is the same and unacceptable.
Therefore, a serious battle is ahead. Beijing is raising its voice every month – practically shouting at the Americans not to cross borders. The statements of the State Council and the Central Military Commission are not yet on the highest note.
Preparations for sea trials of the new Fujian aircraft carrier, with its electromagnetic catapult for launching fighters and the image of the ship that will lead the attack on Taiwan, are more noisy in their own way.
The future of the South China Sea and its trade routes is now more uncertain and looks more dangerous. But the statements of comrades Chen and Zhang are also vague in their own way. Without a doubt, they should be taken seriously. But it is still premature to consider them a declaration of war against Taiwan if the DPP wins the election.
The fact is that the confrontation between Beijing and Taipei differs significantly from the typical structure with unrecognized states, when some remote region arbitrarily separates from the metropolis and begins to consider itself a sovereign power. In the Chinese case, the authorities of both the PRC and Taiwan claim that they are considered to be the legitimate authority throughout China, unified and indivisible.
That is, the island does not want state independence and does not want the collapse of the country, but recognition of itself as the “real” China, most of which is now “illegally” ruled by communists.
It sounds funny, but until the 1970s, when American President Nixon decided to befriend Chinese Chairman Mao against the USSR, this was the official position of Western countries. Even China’s seat at the UN was then filled by people from Taipei, not Beijing.
This gave rise to a legal casuistry to which the term “separatism” is loosely applicable, that is, the complete separation of Taiwan from the 1912 Republic of China and its transformation into another separate country with a predominantly Chinese population, such as Singapore.
But if Taipei does not declare secession from China, then the actions of its authorities, regardless of which party they belong to, are rebellion, not separatism or secession, for which Taiwan is threatened with war by Beijing.
Thus, Comrade Xi and his dignitaries reserve the right to decide what counts as a border approach, after which military conflict is inevitable. If they decide that what’s going on is not separatism, but just some sort of obstruction in the process of political dialogue with Taiwan, then so be it.
But it could be a lot worse. The current Western elites with their huge self-confidence and low competences have already proven with the example of Ukraine and Boris Johnson: they can easily miss even a sure chance to avoid a major war, and several times.
Translation: V. Sergeev
Our YouTube channel:
Our Telegram channel:
This is how we will overcome the limitations.
Share on your profiles, with friends, in groups and on pages.
#China #threatening #Taiwan #war #good #reason
