China is escaping from the ax of recession. Another signal of recovery

On Tuesday, we learned important macroeconomic data from China. ING bank experts interpret them as signals of recovery. November PMI in services in China, according to Caixin Media, it improved and reached 51.5 points. compared to 50.4 points a month earlier and with a consensus of 50.5 points. The indicator is rising higher and higher above the threshold of 50 points separating economic prosperity from recession.

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Bank experts emphasize that above the 50-point limit. also published a few days ago PMI for industry. It improved in November to 50.7 points. with 49.5 points in October, beating analysts’ expectations by 1 point. (consensus 49.6 points). Thus, it also found itself in an area indicating recovery in the sector. These readings increase the chances of a gradual recovery in the Chinese economy at the end of this year.

The Services PMI has been in a downward trend (although with readings above 50 points) since April, but the last two months reflect a moderate rebound. After an exceptionally weak 2022 with real GDP growth of 3%, the Chinese economy will rebound this year –according to the OECD consensus and forecast – by 5.2%. in 2023. However, the OECD assumes a moderate growth of 4.7%. next year. – we read in the bank’s analysis.

Wang Zhe, an economist at Caixin Insight Group, quoted by Reuters, notes that the world’s second-largest economy is showing signs of recovery – with a steady increase in consumer spending, a solid improvement in industrial production and an increase in market confidence.

This does not mean, however, that the recovery of the Chinese economy is certain. According to a study by Caixin services, employment in the Middle Kingdom decreased for the first time since the beginning of 2023. Some companies still prefer to be cautious in their HR policy, which means that they are still not sure of recovery.