nChina’s population has been declining for three consecutive years, a trend driven by the lingering effects of the one-child policy and rapid urbanization. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total population fell by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion in 2024, down from 1.409 billion in 2023. This decline raises notable concerns for the world’s second-largest economy,as a shrinking workforce and consumer base could hinder growth. Additionally, the rising costs of elderly care and pension benefits are expected to strain already debt-ridden local governments.
The birth rate in 2024 saw a slight increase to 6.77 births per 1,000 people, up from 6.39 in 2023. However, the number of deaths remained high at 10.93 million, compared to 11.1 million the previous year. Experts warn that this demographic shift will worsen in the coming years, with the number of productive women (aged 15-49) projected to drop by more than two-thirds to under 100 million by the end of the century. meanwhile, the retirement-age population (60 and over) is expected to surge to over 400 million by 2035, up from around 280 million today.
Urbanization continues to play a significant role in this trend. In 2024, the urban population grew by 10.83 million to 943.3 million, while the rural population declined by 12.22 million to 464.78 million. As in neighboring countries like Japan and South Korea, many Chinese have moved from rural areas to cities, where the high costs of childcare, education, and job uncertainty have made young people hesitant to start families. Gender discrimination and conventional expectations for women to manage households further exacerbate the issue.
In response, Chinese authorities have implemented measures to boost the birth rate. In December 2024, they urged colleges and universities to integrate marriage and love education into their curricula, promoting positive views of marriage, fertility, and family. In November, the state assembly directed local governments to allocate resources to address the population crisis, emphasizing respect for childbirth and marriage “at the right age.”
| key Population trends in China (2023-2024) |
|————————————————|
| Total Population Decline: 1.39 million |
| birth Rate: 6.77 per 1,000 (2024) |
| Deaths: 10.93 million (2024) |
| Urban Population Growth: 10.83 million |
| Rural Population decline: 12.22 million |
| Retirement-age Population: 310.31 million |
Despite these efforts, the marriage rate, which increased by 12.4% in 2023, is expected to decline again in 2025. As China grapples with this demographic challenge, the long-term implications for its economy and society remain uncertain.