by Dario Rivolta * –
While the attention of our politicians and the press is, understandably, focused on the nearby war in Ukraine and the success/failure of the G20, things are happening in the geographically distant Pacific Ocean that could become even more dangerous for the world.
At the end of August, China published its latest official version of its Territorial Map. Of course, it includes not only the lands but also the seas declared to be under Chinese jurisdiction. That Taiwan is also included as part of popular China cannot surprise anyone, given that very hypocritically almost all the countries in the world declare that “there is only one China with Beijing as its capital”. Unfortunately, the new map is not limited to that but also includes all the sea surface that the Chinese unilaterally consider to belong to it.
The publication, perhaps not surprisingly, occurred immediately after the Chinese coast guard had formed a cordon of ships to prevent Philippine supply boats from approaching the Sierra Madre islands which for Manila represent a military outpost in Ayungin Shoal in the Spratly Islands. According to an international arbitration issued by a Court in 2016 and according to the laws signed by all in 1982 through the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, these waters and islands undoubtedly belong to the Philippines. China never accepted the Arbitration Tribunal’s ruling and continued to believe that what Filipinos call the West Philippine Sea is actually part of their Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Taiwan added to the natural protests of the Philippines both for the threatening maritime impediment carried out by the Chinese coast guard and for the content of the map. They did so because China also included waters legitimately claimed by Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan in its EEZ. Indonesia, a member of ASEAN, appears to no longer have maritime disputes with China but there have been some tensions regarding the ownership of its Natuna islands, tensions overcome by the sending of thousands of soldiers, planes and military ships there by Jakarta. All protesting countries refer to the regulations contained in the UN Maritime Convention.
The Malaysian Foreign Minister has said that the Chinese map will have no effect whatsoever on Malaysia and the Vietnamese government has officially declared that the map constitutes an open violation of Vietnam’s sovereignty and international laws.
The Chinese release came just after the Philippines announced future maritime patrols alongside Australian and American ships in disputed waters and Japan announced it was negotiating similar maneuvers with the Philippines.
India also formally protested the day after the map was published because it also included the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh located on the border with the People’s Republic of China. It is clear that no one today, neither the protesting states, nor China, nor the United States have in mind to go beyond these protests and attempt forceful action but, as history has taught us, sometimes they are involuntary accidents, perhaps localized and small in nature which can turn into something more serious, as happens in a snowball effect.
One might wonder why Beijing, always so careful to never go beyond what, from time to time, can be considered the “red lines”, has decided just now to make that new map official. Formally, the spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that “China’s position regarding the South China Sea is firm and clear (i.e.: this is how it is and cannot be discussed, ed.). The relevant Chinese authorities publish maps of various types every year, and we hope that the parties involved can view it in a rational and objective light.”
Regardless of the official declarations, there can be more than one answer. First of all, the Chinese know well that since the USA is heavily involved both in the supply of enormous quantities of weapons and financially on the Ukrainian front, they currently have no ability to go beyond demonstrative actions. Secondly, with this map the Chinese put their hands forward by apodictically affirming the geographical boundaries of their sovereignty, thus justifying any possible reaction they may have to acts they deem hostile. Finally, although the protesting countries did so loudly, none of them, individually or as ASEAN associates, will have the political and military strength to do more than protest.
* Already a member of parliament, he is a geopolitical analyst and expert in international relations and trade.
