Chilean Physicists Warn of Imminent Geostorm in Most Read and Downloaded Scientific Article of 2021

The most read and downloaded article of the year in a magazine Space Weather is that of some Chilean physicists who warn that a solar storm can cause an extraordinary space weather phenomenon called a geostorm –also called geomagnetic storm– which is the consequence of a reaction of our planet to the impact of a powerful ejection of energy that leaves the Sun towards space, which is called a solar storm.

This could cause the blackout of all electrical elements and days could be spent without light, internet, television, cell phone, or telephone. In other words, if the event is very intense, it could have an effect on communications, on different technologies and on electricity transmission networks. We are in solar cycle number 25 and the next event is imminent, at the end of the year, reveals the study carried out by researchers from the University of Chile.

“A large event could potentially be very damaging,” says Professor Pablo Moya, an academic in the Department of Physics at the Faculty of Sciences at the University of Chile, who specialized in space weather while working at NASA. The researcher is one of the authors of the article announcing an imminent geostorm so intense that it would cause a communication blackout lasting several days.

The research, entitled ‘Occurrence of Geomagnetic Storms and their Relationship with the Phases of the Solar Cycles’, published by the prestigious magazine Space Weatherone of the most important in the area, was recently highlighted for being the most read and downloaded scientific article in 2021. The publication was carried out by Professor Pablo Moya together with the researcher from the University of Chile, Paula Reyes, a graduate of the Faculty of Sciences, who completed a master’s degree in the same unit, and Víctor Pinto, a graduate of Casa de Bello and today a professor at the University of Santiago de Chile.

solar flares

“Solar flares, popularly known as tsunamis or solar storms, produce radiation that propagates from the Sun into space and hits the Earth’s magnetic field, which reacts by causing a geomagnetic storm or geostorm, which are powerful ejections of energy. If the event is very intense, it could have an effect on communications, on different communication technologies, electricity transmission, etc.”, explains Dr. Moya.

In it paper, Chilean physicists show the results of a study on a series of geomagnetic storms that occurred between 1957 and 2019, from which they identify the probability of occurrence of these events and whether they will be moderate, intense or severe. Its occurrence depends on the strength of the solar cycle (approximately 11 years long) and its different phases. “Our results suggest that Solar Cycle 25, which has just started and is expected to end around 2034, should be stronger than the current cycle. The maximum should occur between this year and the next. The peak should come soon”, warns the researcher.

The results suggest that Solar Cycle 25, which has just started and is expected to end around 2034, should be stronger than the current cycle. The maximum should occur between this year and next

A large storm lasts about a week from start to finish. We could have communication problems for several days. This impact on everyday life was one of the inspirations for Paula Reyes. “It is related to phenomena that occur around our planet, whose source comes from the Sun, and that directly impact our daily lives, mainly due to our dependence on the use of technologies,” she says.

In the outside world, meanwhile, there are also consequences, since they damage satellites, thus affecting space exploration and the technology that we periodically launch into space. “This type of research also helps to have an estimate of the obsolescence of the satellites, and to implement improvements in their manufacturing materials, since severe storms can cause overloads and irreversible damage to them,” adds the researcher.

For example, early last year, SpaceX launched a fleet of satellites into the upper atmosphere, and a coronal mass ejection that occurred days before, upon reaching Earth, triggered a geomagnetic storm that produced changes in the atmosphere and resulted in a loss about 80% of the satellites in the fleet. “In addition, depending on the intensity of the storm, overloads can occur in our electrical systems, problems in the orbits of the satellites and -in general. in communication systems”, details the Chilean scientist.

Can extreme storms be predicted?

The last major event occurred in 2003 in the Northern Hemisphere and caused an Internet blackout for several days. An almost anecdotal fact in a world practically analogous at that time, which today, twenty years later, when the entire society depends on the Internet connection, electricity and communications, could be catastrophic. “A really big event could cause a lot of losses and a lot of communication problems,” says Professor Moya.

These magnetic fields can disturb any conductive material, be it a high-voltage power line, a large pipe for transporting oil, or a power plant. “In addition, it disturbs the magnetic field that compasses measure. So they also have an effect on navigation, in aeronautics,” says the specialist from the University of Chile.

Along these lines, he relates that in 1989 a very large geomagnetic storm was recorded, dubbed ‘The Halloween event’, which produced blackouts due to the explosion of transformers, power plants and transmission lines due to electromagnetic effects on the earth’s surface.

If that happened today, it would be much more complicated because the internet, satellites, communications, GPS would fail… the Internet would go out and there would be multiple failures in power plants that did not exist in 1859

Pablo Moya

The first recorded event was about 150 years ago and is known as ‘Carrington event‘. The story goes that sparks flew from the telegraphs. “That event was so big, so big, that the dawn was seen in Chile. There are reports that you could read the newspaper at night only in the light of dawn and all the telegraph lines went bad, the workers saw sparks flying from the telegraph lines so they disconnected them from the current, but the current induced by the aurora made them function in the same way and they could just as well communicate only by the induction of the magnetic field of the aurora”, points out the professor.

“If that happened today, it would be much more complicated because the Internet would fail, satellites would fail, communications would fail, GPS would fail… The Internet would go out and there would be multiple failures in power plants that did not exist in 1859,” he says. “An event like that hasn’t happened anymore to this day. So one of the questions is how likely is this to happen tomorrow? And therefore our work had to do with that. We have the data and we can make a statistical relationship to predict how likely it is that there will be an extreme event soon,” says the researcher.

His thesis student agrees with this vision. “If such a storm were to occur today, power outages are likely to occur for several hours due to overloading power lines from the induced electrical current. Also cuts in communications and television, which would result in significant economic losses”, says Paula. However, the scientist states, “we cannot forget that we are facing natural phenomena and that, despite the failures that would occur, we would have the opportunity to witness a fascinating spectacle in our skies, since the auroras could be observed at far latitudes further from the poles.

We are prepared?

Space weather is of vital importance, since it can affect multiple aspects of our life as a society, from communications to geopolitical issues, particularly today, when we depend on various technologies, such as satellites, in our daily lives. “In other words, for countries like Chile, imagine that tomorrow there is an earthquake and at the same time a geomagnetic storm. So, we have isolated people who, on top of that, cannot communicate. That would be one of the worst things that could happen,” says Moya.

There is an office at the United Nations that is concerned with space weather and funds much of the research on plasma issues in space to understand the physics of the Sun, space, and Earth. The purpose of this work is “hopefully one day to have a predictive capacity, in the same way as meteorology, since with the data that is known about pressure, temperature and wind and clouds, one can say with certainty, security if tomorrow there will be an 80% chance of rain, for example. And the medium-term goal is hopefully to do that with the Sun. There is already constant monitoring of the Sun’s activity by space agencies from telescopes and satellites.”

Now a large event could potentially be very, very, very damaging.

Pablo Moya

“The thing is now a big event could potentially be very, very, very damaging. Sure, and that in the end is what motivates the United Nations Space Agency to put resources into this type of research. And it makes a part of the scientific community that is interested in this type of journal exist”, indicates the physicist from the University of Chile.

Does it hurt people? “If you are in space, you can radiate yourself”, says Professor Moya. On the International Space Station, when there are intense events, they have protection protocols, to enter special rooms to minimize radiation. Because of course, a lot of radiation is produced in space, but it does not reach Earth in a way that is harmful to humans. No more than exposing yourself to the Sun.

Most read ‘Paper’

Regarding the fact that it was the most read study of 2021 in Space Weather magazine, Professor Moya comments that “it was good and beautiful news because it is a job that we did with Paula and Víctor to which we gave a lot of affection. We are happy, I think the work was beautiful, clear and attractive. It is a study going back in time, but it allows us to outline a prediction of what will happen from now on. So those two things make the job really attractive for people who study data, but also for people who are interested in making predictions of how intense the current solar cycle is going to be,” says Professor Moya.

Reference: Paula I. Reyes, Victor A. Pinto, Pablo S. Moya. ‘Geomagnetic Storm Occurrence and Their Relation With Solar Cycle Phases’. Revista Space Weather (2021) | DOI: 10.1029/2021SW002766.