ILLUSTRATION. Vaseline skin care product from PT Unilever Tbk.
Reporter: Ika Puspitasari | Editor: Tendi Mahadi
KONTAN.CO.ID – JAKARTA. Analysts assess that the prospects for packaged consumer goods issuers are still attractive as investment options. Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia analyst Sukarno Alatas stated, usually stocks from this sector are an investment choice when other sectors are under pressure.
Sukarno said that the positive sentiment for the shares of issuers of consumer goods, one of which is if the economy can recover faster and the vaccination program is successful. Thus, the potential for purchasing power will increase again.
“Meanwhile, the current negative sentiment stems from an increase in raw materials in line with rising commodity prices and the depreciation of the Rupiah. Because it is reflected in its performance, the majority profit margin ratio is in a downward trend,” Sukarno said to Kontan, Sunday (3/10).
Thus, he predicts that the majority of this year’s performance will not be able to return to the pre-pandemic phase. The reason is, as of the first semester of this year there is only PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) which recorded growth in performance both in terms of revenue and net income.
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“INDF is considered to be a successful issuer in the midst of weakening purchasing power in this sector and the overall decline in year to date (ytd) is the lowest among the three issuers,” Sukarno added.
Looking at RTI data, shares of PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk fell 8.76% ytd, while its subsidiary PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP) corrected 13.05% ytd, then PT Mayora Indah Tbk (MYOR) decreased by 12.92%, and PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR) which fell 47.48% ytd.
In terms of performance, Sukarno continued that INDF was better than other issuers until the first half of this year. In the first half of 2021, INDF’s revenue was recorded at Rp 47.29 trillion or grew by 20% compared to the same period last year of Rp 39.38 trillion.
Along with that, Indofood managed to record a net profit of Rp 3.43 trillion, an increase of 21% compared to the first semester of 2020 of Rp 2.84 trillion. Furthermore, the performance of its subsidiary, ICBP, followed after INDF.
In terms of valuation, Sukarno explained that currently INDF and ICBP shares are cheaper than MYOR and UNVR when viewed from the PBV ratio. Currently INDF shares are trading at 1.2 times PBV and ICBP at 2.96 times. Meanwhile, MYOR’s PBV is at 4.42 times and UNVR is at 36.69 times.
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He suggested that market participants could trading buy INDF shares with a target price of Rp 6,750 and ICBP with a TP of Rp 9,025. “As for MYOR and UNVR, wait and see. Especially for UNVR, the price trend is still in a downward trend and there are no signs of a reversal,” said Sukarno.
Sukarno saw the level support UNVR is at 3,800, if it breaks then it can continue down to 3,500. On Friday (1/10) trading, UNVR shares closed down 2.28% to Rp 3,860.
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