More and more European countries are in the process of reopening society, and on Wednesday the Norwegian government also presented its reopening plan.
One of the questions many people wonder in this connection is how the opportunities will be to travel – and how the prices of airline tickets will be – whether you want to visit relatives in Norway, or go on a long-awaited trip south. As is well known The Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ travel advice until 15 May – and some predict that they will be extended for another month.
In the reopening plan for Norway, the government has chosen to divide the plan into four steps. The first step is to reverse the national measures that were introduced on 25 March, while Erna Solberg will already in step two introduce more facilities – including where one is no longer advised against traveling domestically.
Here is Erna’s reopening plan
How expensive or cheap it will be to fly can depend on where you want to fly, believes professor of transport economics at Molde University College, Svein Bråthen.
There may be an increase in prices internationally
American Nasdaq writes that while prices have fallen during the pandemic, vaccination and reopening of society will apparently lead to increased prices for airline tickets.
At the same time, experts believe that ticket prices on international flights will not increase until May. These will also vary from destination to destination depending on when the different countries release their measures.
Here Europe reopens
Professor Bråthen believes that the price level internationally will depend on simultaneity in reopening and the conditions for being able to travel, for example possible requirements for vaccine passes.
– There may well be higher prices from Norway in the short / medium term if not all destinations open. In the longer term, we can assume that prices will return to the same level as before covid19, Bråthen believes, and adds that even though some airlines have either gone bankrupt or changed operations, experience has shown that it takes a short time before others enter.
Predict travel stops until the summer
What about domestic travel?
How the price level on the domestic routes will be, Bråthen believes, depends on the demand for flying, and the competition on the routes.
– If it goes as one hopes, that society gradually reopens, then I think there is a lot of latent demand for both work-related travel and leisure travel. In this short perspective, I do not have much faith in price declines, in isolation. The market will probably be willing to pay, and the airlines know this, says Bråthen.
He further says that new players such as Wizzair and Flyr can help keep prices down on the heaviest routes. Wizzair normally flies 10 domestic routes, while Flying, hoping to be on the wings in June, will start with seven domestic routes.
– These will be able to help keep prices down there, but the prices on other routes may remain at a higher level, Bråthen says to Dinside, and points out that it will be possible to get low prices on individual routes if new players try to establish seg.
In general, the domestic price level will depend on several factors, including what happens internationally, Bråthen believes.
According to Bråthen, a combination of uncertainty, reduced demand for business travel and a willing leisure travel market can provide a price picture that is not particularly different.
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The price level in Europe
Also on trips from Norway to other European countries, Bråthen believes that new players can push down the price level on some routes, but that the general price level will go up.
– There is reason to assume that a high desire to travel in the leisure market and a relatively large amount of money among people do not speak in favor of a general fall in prices this summer. It may also be that somewhat higher prices in combination with favorable cancellation terms may be a likely outcome, because there is reason to assume that covid-related uncertainty will still be present during the summer months. We do not yet know how this summer will turn out, Bråthen emphasizes.
There have been price increases
Ole Stouby, CEO of the price comparison site travelmarket.no, tells Dinside that there have been price increases at a number of destinations in Europe.
– Destinations where there have still been direct flights have been more or less the same. There are destinations where direct departures have been removed, that there has been an increase in price, because demand has been incredibly low, says Stouby to Dinside.
He thinks it is natural that prices have risen somewhat since a lot of capacity has been taken away from the market.
– But air fares will fall again when the airlines again put more capacity from the summer, believes Stouby, who expects a normal price level for summer travel.
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