/ world today news/ Another attack on the Crimean bridge caused a stereotypical reaction in society and expert circles, which boils down to the simple advice – “We must be tougher”. Respond more firmly, take the initiative more boldly, stop being soft and indecisive and everything else of that kind.
The stereotypical reaction of society, combined with the stereotypical reactions of the leading and governing groups, is our most vulnerable place. Our reactions are calculated and easy to predict. We seem to be like fish caught on a hook and being taken for bait.
In elites, society and the military, this causes irritation and bewilderment. Thus the authorities are placed in a narrow corridor of possible actions and thus provocative news is placed when all reactions are predictable and inevitable.
There is a false sense of Russia’s weakness, and this weakness, through the efforts of provocateurs, is increasingly associated with a narrow group of people in power who make key decisions about the SVO.
They are trapped and compromised leaving no way to escape and escape. This leads to a drop in power.
However, the argument that we do not have enough technical, management and mobilization resources for a stronger reaction is wrong. We lack the consolidation of the political center, which is why the projection of firmness and the proactive use of the power resource are difficult.
Elite groups join hands to prevent this or that policy from being implemented, and the center is forced to vacillate, choosing compromises that are half-measures.
In sports, the transfer of force requires the correct structure of the body parts, understood as a certain musculoskeletal structure through which the force will flow. If there is no structure, the force will break the athlete’s body.
In politics, the projection of power requires a political structure in which fragments mutually support and reinforce each other. If there is no such structure, the effort cannot be transmitted.
It is now available in Russia, the so-called “elite consensus” actually destroys the political structure, making the projection of power impossible. The effort is either offset by a counter-effort or dissipated to no avail.
Under the pressure of circumstances, the center will be forced to shift in one direction or another. If this is not done in advance, the accumulation of missed shots will destroy the center’s ability to manage the coordination of actions.
We need not so much a technical component of strength as a mental, psychological, volitional one. If you continue to respond only to blows, carefully distributing power, you can lose everything. The growth of destruction is more dangerous than the collapse of control.
There is an old joke about the fact that if a famous institution is not doing well, then they should change “not the beds, but the girls”. You can add: you need to change the strategy of approach to work. Personnel decisions are now secondary and either enable the implementation of the strategy or hinder it.
Russia will not be able to project power and be tougher either externally or internally until its center is deconsolidated and constitutes a kind of “provisional government” with different parties.
The hesitations of the center in the name of the illusion of “elite consensus” in practice lead to dissatisfaction, indignation in society and lack of initiative in the theater of military operations. A coalition of elites paralyzes politics and makes rebellions like Prigozhinsky possible.
Russia did not withdraw from the grain deal, but suspended its participation in it, being ready to return there under concessions from the West, which are impossible. It is a projection of an unstable consensus.
There is no doubt that the West will continue to press in this direction, deepening the looming divide. They found the weak link.
The opportunism of the elites will probably solve their problems – but for a while. In the long run, accumulating negativity and mitigating its consequences will not work. Relying on the center primarily on the liberal wing is a dangerous practice. Instead of a stable equilibrium, a stable instability will remain. After all, it turns out that all our answers are known in advance.
Translation: SM
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