Thus, the market had expectations about the first formal analysis that would be presented on these titles. The entity in charge of this was Divide Bag.
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The company won the good as valuation of IPCH (and also of Volcan). Their job consisted of determining the price at which class A shares, those with voting rights, should be offered in a next public Acquisition Offer (OPA) that will be carried out on these securities.
According to Diviso, the price for the takeover bid should be US$ 0.0657 (approximately S/ 0.24 at the exchange rate of that day) for each class A share of IPCH. this data was published on Thursday night, the day these titles closed at S/ 2.86.
In reaction to the large difference between the market price and the brokerage firm’s calculation, IPCH’s class A share fell 21.33% during trading on Friday, closing at S/ 2.25. In addition,the class B share,that without voting rights and where there are more investors,fell 11.11%, ending at S/ 0.24.
“Today, both the central and regional governments and investors have activated a lot of recent interest in the growth of the Chancay port and that could mean a greater value (for IPCH shares) in the future”said daniel Romero, general manager of Diviso Bolsa.
The executive explained that Its calculation was developed based on an agreement signed between Volcan and Cosco Shipping (majority partner in the megaport) in 2019, which specified the amount for which the mining company could sell (through a put option) its participation in the project if This is how I decided to do it starting in 2026.
“Today,the person who has invested or wants to invest in IPCH already has a valuation report,but it is with the heading that this document assumes information as of May 8,2024. That is, from before the inauguration of the port.”said miguel Rodríguez, leader of the Special Operations division of Diviso Bolsa.
“The report is for the investor who will be the target of the takeover bid and will decide whether to accept it. (and sells) or not. The report does not talk about the current situation of the port because (from Cosco Shipping) they have not given us access to that information”he added.
Cosco Shipping owns the port of Chancay, with a 60% stake, while IPCH owns 40%.
Observations
The analysts consulted have agreed that one of the main problems with IPCH is the lack of access to information.
“the big problem is the information and the quality of it that the Chinese company (Cosco Shipping) was going to provide.Not even they (Diviso) have been given detailed data that allows them to make a model, and for me that has always been the main risk with this action. everything ends up being very speculative.”said Ricardo Vásquez,research associate at Seminario SAB.
For his part, Alberto Arispe, general manager of Kallpa Securities, was more severe with his observations on the Diviso report.For the analyst, one of the main flaws is that the valuer has used a put option signed five years ago for the calculation.
“My criticism is that this option (of sale to volcano) was issued in 2019 when the port was a project, but today it is a reality, so the value must have increased and is probably higher”he stated.
“The fact that the share (class A of IPCH) has not fallen directly to the price proposed by diviso (from S/ 2.86 to S/ 0.24) reflects that the market has not taken it as a price of confidence”said Vásquez from Seminario SAB.
Luis Ramos, equity strategy manager at LarrainVial Research, for his part, pointed out that the report has not clarified the fundamentals of IPCH’s action. “The underlying issue is that the market today continues to lack relevant information to build an objective value for the company”he stressed.
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Next OPA
Transition Metals, having 63% of the outstanding class A shares of the port of chancay, is required by law to make a takeover bid to the other minority shareholders. A public contest had to be held and a valuation entity was chosen, with Diviso Bolsa being the winner in a second call.
“Onc the valuation report is made public, Transition Metals is obliged to carry out the takeover bid within five days where there is a stock market.”said Miguel Rodríguez, leader of the Special Operations Division of Diviso Bolsa.
