The quarter-finals in the Champions League have been decided. Sky Sport looks at the chances of the individual teams.
The draw for the quarter-finals of the Champions League resulted in some great duels. From a German perspective, FC Bayern will play against Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund will have to play against Manchester City. Jürgen Klopp also has to play against CL record winner Real Madrid. Thomas Tuchel, on the other hand, has luck with FC Porto.
In advance, we will provide you with a short form check with the teams’ prospects for the semi-finals.
FC Porto – FC Chelsea
- First leg Wednesday 7 April, live and exclusively on Sky from 9:00 p.m.
- Second leg Tuesday April 13th, from 9:00 p.m. live in the Original Sky Conference
Porto mastered the group stage confidently in second behind Manchester City. Sergio Conceicao’s team went into the round of 16 against Juventus as underdogs. There Cristiano Ronaldo experienced a blue and white miracle with Juve’s star ensemble in his Portuguese homeland. Porto won the first leg 2-1 and after a brilliant fighting performance in the second leg, the Portuguese defeated Juve in extra time despite being outnumbered.
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Chelsea also went through the group stage without any major difficulties. The Blues, still under Frank Lampard, won their group in front of Sevilla FC. In the round of 16 against Atletico Madrid, Thomas Tuchel, a new coach, sat on the bench. Olivier Giroud set the course in the first leg with a dream goal to the quarter-finals. In the second leg, the Blues left nothing to burn at Stamford Bridge.
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Chelsea unbeaten under Tuchel
In the domestic league things are not going quite as well for Porto as in the Champions League. There have been two wins recently, but championship leaders Sporting are already ten points behind Porto (currently second).
Chelsea is still unbeaten under the direction of Tuchel and is back on a Champions League place. The former BVB coach has stabilized the defensive and the offensive is also rolling. In this form, the English are favorites in the duel with Porto.
And even if the market value comparison of the two squads clearly speaks in favor of Chelsea (235 million euros postage compared to 896 million euros Chelsea *) Tuchel, Werner and Co. should beware of postage.
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Coach Sergio Conceicao has formed a committed squad that don’t need many chances to score. The current season is reminiscent of 2004, when Porto went into the knockout phase as a blatant underdog. In the end, Jose Mourinho and his team won the title.
Chances of advancement – the Sky Prediction: 30:70 in favor of Chelsea.
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Real Madrid – FC Liverpool
- First leg Tuesday, April 6th, live and exclusively on Sky from 9:00 p.m.
- Second leg Wednesday, April 14th, from 9:00 p.m. live in the Original Sky Conference
Real Madrid were the first to prevail in Group B ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach, Shakhtar Donezk and Inter Milan, but had great difficulties in the meantime. One should not write off Zinedine Zidane’s troupe for a long time. In the round of 16, the Royal Atalanta Bergamo defeated with two wins (1: 0 & 3: 1).
Jürgen Klopp also moved into the round of 16 as group winners with Liverpool. There hardened Reds threw RB Leipzig out of the tournament (2-0 twice).
Parallels between Real and Liverpool
With six points behind leaders Atletico and two points on Barcelona, Real can only have limited hopes for the championship and should therefore be all the more motivated in the Champions League.
Same goes for Liverpool. In the Premier League, Klopp and his team will find it difficult to move into the premier class (five points behind Chelsea and fourth). It looked completely different. After the 17th matchday, Liverpool was still first and then experienced an almost unprecedented crash – also due to injury problems. The defense of the Reds is very vulnerable without their conductor Virgil van Dijk, who is out even longer.
Real with a lot of experience
This is exactly what Real should try to capitalize on. There is hardly a more ripped-off and more experienced team in the quarter-finals than the Madrilenians. With Sergio Ramos, Toni Kroos and Karim Benzema, the axis of Los Blancos is still the same as it was in 2016 to 2018, when Zidane and his men won the Champions League three times in a row.
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Liverpool will seek revenge for the lost 2018 final against Madrid, but due to the current personnel problems at the Reds, Real is a slight favorite in this duel.
Chances of advancement – the Sky Prediction: 60:40 in favor of Real Madrid.
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Manchester City – Borussia Dortmund
- First leg Tuesday, April 6th, from 9:00 p.m. live in the Original Sky Conference
- Second leg Wednesday, April 14th, live and exclusively on Sky from 9:00 p.m.
Manchester City made it through to the quarter-finals very confidently and is considered by many experts as THE favorite for the title. Not without reason: City scored 16 points in the group stage (only in Porto it was 0-0). With two clear 2-0 wins against Borussia Mönchengladbach, the round of 16 was a clear affair.
Dortmund also won his group. There was one defeat at Lazio, but also four wins. In the round of 16, BVB met Sevilla. The Andalusians had not conceded a goal seven games in a row before the first leg, Dortmund poured them three pieces (including a double from Erling Haaland). BVB saved this lead in the second leg over the rounds (2: 2).
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City can win four titles
Manchester City have the chance to win four titles this season. With a 14-point lead over Manchester United, they will hardly miss the English championship. In addition, Pep Guardiola’s team is in the final of the League and FA Cup.
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BVB can’t keep up with that. Edin Terzic and his team made it into the DFB Cup semi-finals (against Holstein Kiel) and the Champions League quarter-finals, but in the league it’s all about making it to fourth place and thus qualifying for the premier league still to be achieved (currently two points behind Eintracht Frankfurt).
Achilles heel becomes strength
City closed the last major construction site in the past this season: the defense. The 68 million man Ruben Dias, who came from Benfica, immediately made himself head of defense. With him, the defense is almost bombproof. The English have only conceded one goal in the Champions League this season. The ball in the premier class has not been wriggling in the Citizens’ network for 700 minutes.
In addition, there is a first-class offensive with stars such as Kevin De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, Sergio Agüero or the current series goalscorer Ilkay Gündogan. The Citizens hardly have a weakness and are the clear favorites in the duel with BVB.
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What gives the Dortmunders courage? Erling Haaland! He almost single-handedly shot BVB one round further with four goals in the round of 16 – the City Defense has not yet encountered such a caliber this season. If Jadon Sancho also gets fit in time for the duel with his ex-club, BVB could get the surprise. But that takes two evenings when everything runs 100 percent smoothly.
Chances of advancement – the Sky Prediction: 85:15 in favor of Manchester City.
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FC Bayern – Paris Saint-Germain
- First leg Wednesday, April 7th, from 9:00 p.m. live in the Original Sky Conference
- 2nd leg Tuesday April 13th, from 9:00 p.m. live and exclusively on Sky
In the group stage, FC Bayern picked up where they left off at the end of last season. There were five wins and one draw in Group A. And the round of 16 against Lazio was quickly decided. The Romans had nothing to counter the overwhelming offensive of the German record champions. After a 4-1 win in the first leg, the rematch in Munich almost turned out to be a show (2-1 for Bayern).
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Paris Saint-Germain had it much more difficult. The French prevailed in their group – still with Thomas Tuchel as coach – just ahead of RB Leipzig and Manchester United first. In the round of 16 it was against FC Barcelona. Under the new coach Mauricio Pochettino PSG played really big. The 4-1 win at Camp Nou made an impression in Europe. After a 1-1 draw in the second leg, the quarter-finals were perfect.
Bayern & PSG with difficult games before the CL duel
In the Bundesliga, the title for Bayern is not a sure-fire success this season. Hansi Flick’s team has found a challenger in RB Leipzig. Four days before the quarter-final first leg against Paris is the duel with the Red Bulls.
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It looks similar with Paris. The capitals meet on April 3 before the quarter-finals against Lille, which is currently still ahead of the second-placed PSG.
That is why Bavaria is an easy favorite
The new edition of last year’s Champions League final will be a tight box again this time. PSG had their chances against Munich in August 2020. In the end, a stroke of genius by Joshua Kimmich and Kingsley Coman decided the final.
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Bayern are known for the fact that they can call up their maximum performance in such duels. That’s why they are slightly favorites this time too, because PSG still lack this consistency under Pochettino. For example, there was a 2-1 defeat in the league against relegation candidate Nantes.
However, the Munich team has to get a grip on their susceptibility to counter attacks, which runs like a thread through the season. Because PSG is right there with lightning fast players like Kylian Mbappe and a possibly fit Neymar again.
Chances of advancement – the Sky Forecast: 60:40 in favor of FC Bayern.
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* Market values according to KPMG.
More about the author Thomas Goldmann
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