Challenges Await Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif as He Takes on Second Term as Prime Minister
When Shehbaz Sharif first became Pakistan’s prime minister two years ago, he faced the daunting task of convincing a fractious coalition and an angry public to accept unpopular measures in order to save the nation from default. Now, as he takes on his second term as prime minister, the challenges he faces are even greater.
Shehbaz was named the new premier of Pakistan after his elder brother and party leader, Nawaz Sharif, unexpectedly passed the baton to him. However, his position is far from secure. Supporters of his jailed rival, Imran Khan, won the most seats in the February poll, and Sharif only regained power thanks to a shaky coalition. He must also renew a loan with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by April to keep the economy afloat, a task that is likely to fuel public unrest. Additionally, he must navigate the delicate relationship with the powerful military that once exiled him.
However, despite these challenges, Shehbaz Sharif has been in this position before. When he first came to power in 2022, his predecessor Khan had agreed to subsidize fuel prices weeks before he was ousted. This move placated a population squeezed by rising inflation but cost the government millions of dollars and stalled an IMF bailout. Sharif was informed that he needed to raise fuel prices to secure the IMF deal and save the country from default. It took him six weeks to persuade his coalition partners to raise prices, resulting in a delay that cost Pakistan hundreds of millions of dollars. Eventually, he managed to secure a $3 billion loan by taking unpopular steps such as removing fuel subsidies and raising energy costs.
Sharif’s first term as prime minister did not earn him many accolades. He had minimal control over the coalition partners and faced challenges in implementing policies. However, his experience during that time has prepared him for the skills he will need as the leader of another potentially unpopular coalition.
In his second term, Sharif’s two main allies have stated that they will support the government on a case-by-case basis. The largest partner, the Pakistan Peoples Party, led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, declined to join the cabinet. This means that Shehbaz Sharif will need to navigate the complexities of coalition politics and build consensus on a case-by-case basis.
Shehbaz’s return to power was unexpected, as his older brother Nawaz was believed to be the party’s pick for the top job. However, the failure of Nawaz’s party to win a majority in the election led him to hand over the prime minister role to his younger brother, who was seen as better suited to running a large coalition. Despite this, it is likely that Nawaz will still have a say in policy, as Shehbaz frequently sought his advice during his previous term as premier.
Another factor that Shehbaz will need to consider is the influence of the military. The army has historically played a powerful role in Pakistani politics, and Shehbaz has been conciliatory towards them, openly praising army chief General Asim Munir. However, he must strike a delicate balance between appeasing the military and maintaining civilian control over the government.
The Sharif brothers come from a business family and only entered politics when their family business was nationalized in the 1970s. Their pro-business background remains evident in Shehbaz’s approach to governance. He is known for being affable and willing to listen in meetings with company executives. He also has a strong understanding of economic issues and fiscal constraints. During his first term as premier, he checked if there was fiscal space before raising pensions for government employees.
Shehbaz also served as the chief minister of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province, for over a decade. During this time, he gained a reputation for being a demanding and occasionally abrasive administrator. He was known for his relentless work ethic and would often call for site visits at midnight. His projects were executed at a rapid pace, earning him the nickname “Shehbaz Speed.”
However, Shehbaz’s track record has not been without controversy. He has faced corruption allegations and spent seven years in exile after a military coup in 1999. These allegations have cost him politically and affected his public support.
Now, as he begins his second term as prime minister, Shehbaz faces his most pressing task yet. Pakistan’s debt is classified as borderline sustainable, with high interest rates and low growth. Inflation remains above 20%, and he must seek a fresh loan of at least $6 billion from the IMF under potentially stricter terms than before. Raising taxes to meet these conditions is likely to stoke further unrest among the public.
Despite the challenges ahead, Shehbaz Sharif’s experience and understanding of Pakistan’s political system may work in his favor. He is seen as someone who can navigate the complexities of