Chad: How to break the cycle of agro-pastoral violence in the eternal struggle between nomadic herders and sedentary farmers

ROMA – In Chad – according to an analysis by Crisis Group, an organization that raises alarms to prevent conflicts by sharing information and encouraging intelligent peace actions – agro-pastoral violence has reached an unprecedented level in recent years, many humanitarian organizations report. The perception of a gap between the North and the South of the country has thus strengthened. Elected last May, President Mahamat Déby should make the resolution of these conflicts one of the priorities of his mandate, several observers point out.

What’s new? Basically nothing. The age-old conflict between farmers and herders continues in this African country, just as opposing tribal systems survive everywhere, between sedentary farmers and herders and groups dedicated to transhumance. The agro-pastoral crisis in Chad has therefore reached very high peaks precisely during the political transition following the death of former President Idriss Déby Itno, in 2021, causing the death of over 1,000 people and the injury of over 2,000. This violence is exacerbating the perceived division between the North and the South of the country.

Hatred of the South towards the North and do-it-yourself justice. There is a growing number of cattle breeders coming from the North and, consequently, the sedentary populations of the South and the Center perceive this increase of northerners as the effect of an unjust protection by the central authorities. Therefore, resentment is spreading, so much so that there is fear – even after the disputed presidential elections in May – that we will end up witnessing conflicts between enemy groups ready to take justice into their own hands.

What should be done. Observers and humanitarian workers say the new president, Mahamat Déby, should prioritize resolving the conflict between herders and ranchers during his term. His government should ensure security and impartial justice in the affected areas, involving residents in mediation efforts to help them restore their trust in the authorities.

A thousand dead and more than 2,000 injured. Chad’s southern and central provinces have seen more than a hundred clashes between sedentary farmers and herder groups over the past three years, as the country goes through a political transition following the death of long-time President Idriss Déby Itno. The violence has left more than 1,000 people dead and over 2,000 injured, while also exacerbating food insecurity in the affected regions and the perceived divide between the country’s north and south. Driven by identity-based demands, the multifaceted conflict continues to escalate, with some herder groups now carrying automatic rifles.

The formation of armed self-defense militias. If left unchecked, intercommunal conflict could lead to farmers forming militias, which could further widen divisions among Chadians. The current president should therefore quickly introduce measures to limit the use of firearms and prevent the emergence of self-defense militias. He should also support initiatives to prosecute perpetrators and facilitate conflict mediation, enlisting the help of community representatives.

The outcome of last May’s elections. On May 6, Mahamat Déby won 61 percent of the vote in a presidential election marred by numerous irregularities, ending a three-year transition period. A junta had installed him at the helm of the country in April 2021, following the death of his father Idriss, who had held power for three decades (1990-2021). After initially opening political space to the opposition and calling for a national dialogue, the transitional government changed course, launching a bloody crackdown in October 2022 on demonstrators demanding the return of civilian rule. More than 100 people were killed in the protests and several opposition figures went into exile.

The Southerners’ dashed hopes. As the transition began, many people in the South, who make up about 60 percent of Chad’s population, pushed for a change at the top of the state, which had been dominated since the 1980s by elites from the North, particularly the Zaghawa (to which both the father and son Déby belong), Gorane, and Arab ethnic groups. Such a change, southerners hoped, would bring greater autonomy to Chad’s various regions or even be a first step toward federalism. Southerners also saw an opportunity to end what they perceived as the clannish and nepotistic practices by which northerners exercised a monopoly on the state apparatus.

But the central government has failed to meet the expectations of the South. But the transitional authorities have not moved in this direction. The new constitution, approved by referendum in December 2023, has retained a unitary and centralized model for the state, although the revised basic law has introduced a small measure of decentralization. None of the three southerners appointed as prime minister during the transition, Albert Pahimi Padacké, Saleh Kebzabo and Succès Masra, have done much to address the grievances of their home communities. Nor have any of them served as a counterweight in a power structure whose political and administrative personnel still largely come from northern Chad.

After oil, livestock is the most important economy. This has accentuated the sense of abandonment felt by the population in the South and Centre of the country, contributing to fueling the conflict between farmers and herders. Unlike other countries in the Sahel and Central Africa, Chad plays a leading role in the livestock economy, after that of oil. Since the 2000s, representatives of the administrative and military authorities of the North have personally owned herds of cattle in the South. To protect the herds, they have hired herders who, convinced that the power of the State is on their side, have resorted to armed force in disputes with the sedentary population.

The number of cattle owners and armed herdsmen is increasing. Under Mahamat Déby, the number of northern cattle owners continued to increase, as did the number of weapons supplied to herders, particularly from neighboring Central African Republic. Farmers in the South and Center thus came to believe that the elite Northerners have used the transition to strengthen their grip on the state apparatus at the local level, including through violence.