HoonSmart.com >> CGS views today’s SET at 1,370 points as a trading opportunity, looking at “reducing” Fed interest rates in the second half of the year, not June 24. Recommended stocks: SPRC.
CGS International Securities Company (Thailand) or CGS by Trend Spotter views the SET timing at 1370 points as a trading opportunity again, with the market waiting for the Non-farm payrolls numbers this Friday night after Private payrolls came out better. expect Supports the view that the FED’s interest rate “reduction” may be in the second half of the year, not June 2024.
for domestic factors Follow the preview of the banking group’s 1Q24 budget. We expect the overall net profit of 7 Thai banks to decrease 1% yoy but grow 17% qoq to 49.8 billion baht in 1Q24 due to higher loan loss provision rates than the same period of the year. ago But this will partly be compensated by an increase in the interest rate spread (NIM), while profits will grow qoq because operating expenses will increase seasonally in 4Q, which should cause the expense-to-income ratio to decrease from 49% in 4Q23 to 45.7% in 1Q24
NPL ratio is expected to be stable qoq at 3.61% in 1Q24, but still need to be cautious with the trend of loan loss provision ratio expected to increase 8bp yoy to 160bp in 1Q24.
and NIM will increase 40bp yoy but fall 3bp qoq to 3.63% in 1Q24 as we believe loan yields (after the policy interest rate reaches its highest point of 2.5% in November 2023) will change less than interest costs. (Adjusted according to fixed deposit interest rates)
Recommended stocks
SPRC: Reveals that the RFCC unit reached full capacity in 1Q24 and expects SPM to return to operation in 2Q24.
We think SPRC will benefit from strong gasoline crack spreads and expect GRM to increase to $7-8 in 1Q24.
Positive crude oil prices support the 1Q24 budget on Inventory gains.
KKP : We believe that the stock price has dropped after the bad news about losses on seized cars and second-hand cars of approximately 1 billion baht in 4Q23.
We believe gross loans can still grow 7.2% yoy from retail and business loans.
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2024-04-05 01:08:07
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