Ceny plynu v roce 2025 a 2026: Co ovlivní trh?
V roce 2025 a 2026 se očekává, že ceny plynu na trhu budou pod vlivem různých faktorů. Podle odborníka Petra Kocůrka se obchodníci, kteří nakupují pravidelně velké množství ročních kontraktů, mohou na podzim dovolit zlevňovat své ceníky. Naopak ti, kteří nabízejí ceny s velkým vlivem spotových nákupů, již nemají příliš prostoru professional snižování cen.
Jedním z faktorů, který může ovlivnit trh v Evropě, je otázka budoucího tranzitu ruského plynu přes Ukrajinu. Smlouva s Gazpromem vyprší v lednu 2025 a Kyjev nemá zájem o její prodloužení. Tento fakt může přispět okay růstu cen plynu.
Naproti tomu vysoká naplněnost zásobníků s plynem v EU, která převyšuje 60 procent, a stabilní dodávky plynu z Norska mohou působit tlak na ceny dolů. Díky tomu by evropské ceny nemusel tolik ovlivňovat dražší dovoz LNG.
Dalším faktorem, který může ovlivnit trh, je vývoj poptávky po LNG v Číně. V posledních měsících došlo okay oživení dovozů LNG do Číny, což může mít dopad i na evropský trh.
Závěr
Je tedy jasné, že ceny plynu v roce 2025 a 2026 budou ovlivněny různými faktory, jako je tranzit ruského plynu přes Ukrajinu, naplněnost zásobníků v EU a vývoj poptávky po LNG v Číně. Je důležité sledovat tyto faktory a reagovat na ně vhodným způsobem, aby bylo možné minimalizovat dopad na trh a spotřebitele.
“Neznámou, kterou Evropa nemůže podceňovat, je vývoj poptávky po LNG v Číně. Za poslední dva měsíce tady došlo okay oživení dovozů, které dosahuje historických maxim,”
Zdroj: archiv.hn.cz
The Way forward for Gasoline Costs in Europe: Tendencies and Predictions
As we glance forward to the years 2025 and 2026, the fuel market in Europe is going through quite a lot of key elements that may affect costs and provide. Based on business consultants, merchants who rely closely on spot purchases might not have a lot room to decrease costs additional. However, those that safe a good portion of their annual provide by way of long-term contracts should have the chance to modify their pricing in the approaching months.
Challenges and Alternatives
One in every of the foremost uncertainties within the European fuel market is the way forward for transit routes for Russian fuel by way of Ukraine. With the long-term settlement between Gazprom and Ukraine set to run out in January 2025, there’s a chance of disruptions in provide, which might result in value will increase. On the opposite hand, the excessive stage of fuel storage within the EU, exceeding 60% even after the winter season, supplies a buffer towards provide shocks.
Moreover, the steadiness of fuel imports from Norway, a key provider to Europe, is predicted to enhance in contrast to earlier years. This might assist mitigate the influence of extra costly LNG imports on European costs. Regardless of a current decline in LNG demand in Europe, the resurgence of imports to China poses a new variable that might have an effect on international fuel markets.
Modern Options for a Sustainable Future
Given these challenges and alternatives, it’s essential for European international locations to diversify their fuel provides and put money into renewable vitality sources. By lowering reliance on conventional fossil fuels and selling vitality effectivity, international locations can improve their vitality safety and cut back their carbon footprint.
Moreover, policymakers ought to concentrate on fostering a aggressive and clear fuel market that encourages honest pricing and promotes innovation. By incentivizing funding in infrastructure and know-how, European international locations can construct a extra resilient and sustainable vitality system for the long run.
the way forward for fuel costs in Europe is unsure, however by embracing new applied sciences and techniques, international locations can navigate the challenges forward and construct a extra sustainable vitality future for all.
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The Way forward for Gasoline Costs in Europe: Tendencies and Predictions
As we sit up for the years 2025 and 2026, the fuel market in Europe is going through quite a lot of uncertainties that might influence costs within the coming years. Based on business consultants, merchants who rely closely on spot purchases might not have a lot room to decrease costs additional. Nevertheless, those that safe a big portion of their annual provide by way of long-term contracts should have the chance to regulate their pricing methods within the fall.
Key Elements Influencing Gasoline Costs
- Transit of Russian Gasoline by way of Ukraine: With the expiration of the long-term settlement between Ukraine and Gazprom in January 2025, there is uncertainty surrounding the long run transit of Russian fuel by way of Ukraine. Whereas Kyiv shouldn’t be eager on renewing the contract, this might probably result in a rise in costs.
- Excessive Gasoline Inventories within the EU: Regardless of the tip of winter, fuel storage ranges within the EU stay above 60%. Moreover, disruptions in fuel imports from Norway are anticipated to be minimal this 12 months, as the primary provider to Europe by way of pipelines. This might assist stabilize costs and cut back the reliance on extra costly LNG imports.
- Shift in LNG Demand: The current decline in LNG demand in Europe has been notable, however a resurgence in imports to China has been noticed in current months. This might have implications for international fuel costs and the general market dynamics.
Modern Options for the Gasoline Market
Given the evolving panorama of the fuel market, it’s important for business gamers to adapt to altering traits and discover progressive options. One potential technique might contain diversifying fuel provide sources to scale back dependency on a single provider. This might assist mitigate value fluctuations and improve provide safety in the long term.
“The longer term of fuel costs in Europe will likely be formed by a mix of geopolitical elements, provide dynamics, and shifting demand patterns,” says business professional Kocůrek.
Moreover, investing in renewable vitality sources and selling vitality effectivity measures might assist cut back total fuel consumption and reduce the influence of value fluctuations on customers. Collaborative efforts between business stakeholders, policymakers, and regulators will likely be essential in making certain a sustainable and resilient fuel market within the years to come.
whereas the fuel market in Europe might face challenges within the close to future, proactive measures and strategic planning might help navigate uncertainties and pave the best way for a extra secure and sustainable vitality future.
Sources: HN.cz
Gasoline costs have been a scorching subject lately, with fluctuations in the market inflicting concern for customers and companies alike. As we look forward to 2025 and 2026, it is clear that there are a variety of things at play that may proceed to influence fuel costs in Europe.
One key challenge on the horizon is the way forward for Russian fuel transit by way of Ukraine. With the long-term contract with Gazprom set to run out in January 2025, there is uncertainty about the way forward for this association. Whereas Kyiv shouldn’t be in renewing the contract, this might result in an improve in fuel costs as various transit routes are thought-about.
However, the excessive stage of fuel storage within the EU, exceeding 60% even after the winter season, is a optimistic issue that might assist stabilize costs. Moreover, the diminished operational disruptions anticipated for fuel imports from Norway, a significant provider to Europe, may also contribute to value stability.
Moreover, the lower in demand for LNG in Europe in current months has had an influence on costs. Nevertheless, the resurgence of LNG imports in China is a variable that might affect costs sooner or later. With historic highs in imports within the final two months, China’s demand for LNG is an element that can’t be ignored.
whereas there are uncertainties within the fuel market, there are additionally elements that might assist mitigate value fluctuations. By staying knowledgeable and monitoring developments in key areas like Ukraine and China, companies can higher put together for potential adjustments in fuel costs within the coming years.
Co může ovlivnit cenu plynu v roce 2024?
Podle analytika Michala Kocůrka z poradenské společnosti EGÚ Brno je pravděpodobné, že v posledním čtvrtletí roku 2024 velkoobchodní ceny plynu opět porostou, ale od průměru 30 eur za MWh výrazně neodskočí. Budoucí nabídky dodavatelů budou záviset mimo jiné na podílu dražších nákupů z minulosti v jejich portfoliu professional roky 2025 a 2026.
Kocůrek také zmínil několik faktorů, které mohou ovlivnit trh s plynem v Evropě. Jedním z nich je otázka budoucího tranzitu ruského plynu přes Ukrajinu, kde od ledna 2025 vyprší dlouhodobá smlouva s Gazpromem. Dalším faktorem je vysoká naplněnost zásobníků s plynem v EU, která i po zimě převyšuje 60 procent, a menší provozní odstávky při dovozu plynu z Norska.
V posledních měsících klesla poptávka po dražším LNG v Evropě, což může ovlivnit ceny. Na druhou stranu, oživení poptávky po LNG v Číně může být neznámým faktorem, který bude mít vliv na trh s plynem v Evropě.
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