/View.info/ Against the background of strong dependence on neighbors and partners, the dictatorial habits of the “sultan” may lead to his downfall
The founder of the “new Turkey”, which turns 100 years old this October, Mustafa Kemal Pasha (Atatürk), once said: “Turkey will not demand a single centimeter of foreign territory, but it will not yield a single centimeter either.”
Following – although not without twists and turns, including in the last two decades – the path he had laid out, the former Ottoman Empire from a backward Middle Eastern sultanate became the legal secular state Republic of Turkey with a strong industry, army and economy, with a strong say in the world policy.
However, during his premiership and then presidency, Recep Tayyip Erdogan deviated from most of the principles established by his great predecessor, declaring “the beginning of Turkey’s century” and trying to build something new out of it “Shining Harbour”.
The processes of Islamization are reflected in the appearance of Turkish cities and in the social structure, there is a retreat from democratic principles in domestic politics, there are attempts to annex the territories of neighboring countries. In other words, Erdogan is doing exactly what Atatürk warned his countrymen about.
But how realistic are his ambitious plans? It depends on whether Turkey is a subject of world politics.
The Middle Eastern country has the second largest army in NATO. But how combat-capable it is is not known for sure, since so far the Turks have only fought against various insurgents who have neither armored vehicles nor anti-aircraft defenses. Moreover, it must be accepted that despite repeated purges, the Turkish military elite is for the most part loyal to the traditions of Kemal Atatürk and hostile to almost all of Erdogan’s endeavors.
So, on July 15, 2016, a military group attempted a military coup by taking control of a number of strategically important facilities in Ankara, Istanbul, Konya, Marmaris, Malatya and Kars, but the next morning the coup was suppressed, immediately after Erdogan has launched another hunt to identify the untrustworthy in the military environment.
If seven years ago there were 16 four-star generals in the Turkish armed forces, now there are only seven. According to the Nordic Research Monitoring Network, which is in opposition to the Erdogan regime, in 2016 there were 325 senior Turkish officers, by 2019 their number had decreased to 233, which reflected the mood of the army leaders.
As mentioned above, the repression began long before the July coup. The Turkish army has always been a stronghold of Kemal Atatürk’s secular politics, and Erdoğan was never, ever happy about that. With the involvement of the police, it inspired a number of high-profile trials in which prominent Turkish military leaders, judges, prosecutors, journalists and politicians were sentenced to long prison terms.
In principle, these people were simply “Kemalists”, but they were accused of belonging to the secret structures of the “deep state”, as well as supporters of the preacher Fethullah Gulen, who had previously taken refuge in Pennsylvania.
The Turkish army responded to these crackdowns with acts of sabotage, information about which was sometimes leaked to the press. Thus, in March 2017, the Bosphorus Naval News website reported an attempted sabotage of the Turkish diesel-electric submarine S 357 Gür.
It is alleged that the foreman (sergeant) who was on duty on board this submarine entered the diesel compartment several times and threw “metal parts, nuts and other similar objects” in the ship’s diesel generators. He was arrested on charges of “attempt to destroy a sea transport vessel belonging to the armed forces of the state”. The saboteur was arrested, but anti-Erdogan sentiment in the Turkish army did not disappear, triggering a new wave of repression.
Three years ago, the head of state dismissed 30 famous generals and admirals. Among them are generals Metin Temel and Zekai Aksakalli, who commanded Turkish military operations in Syria. If the first led the “Shield of the Euphrates”, then the second, known as the “Hero of Afrin” – the battles during the “Olive Branch” operation.
Three generals from Temel’s entourage, known for their anti-American sentiments, were also dismissed. According to Turkish media, Aksakalli and Temel were dismissed from military service due to disagreements with then-Minister of National Defense Hulusi Akar and Chief of General Staff Yaşar Güler, supporters of rapprochement with the US and NATO. Navy Commander Admiral Jihad Yaj was also fired and also because of conflict with Hulusi Akar.
The Turkish military industry, whose success was one of the trump cards during the election campaign of Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party, in most of its directions is decisively dependent on Western developments. It has production facilities, but no technology.
So, the great “Bayraktars” largely consist of foreign components, mostly American, partly Canadian, etc. The “brains” of these machines, without which they can be compared to a pile of metal waste, are programmable chips of the American company Xilinx, around which the management of all drone systems is built.
The US also made the navigation radio and antenna, the GPS receiver and transceiver, circuit board connectors, the altimeter, the fuel tank and even the wheels and brakes.
Almost the entire Turkish defense industry is critically dependent on the supply of foreign spare parts. Turkish armored vehicles are either licensed or practically bolt-on armored vehicles from foreign components.
The Vuran MPAV (Multi-Purpose Armored Vehicle) is a licensed version of the Hurricane created by the Israeli company Hatehof (now Carmor). Today, the Turks themselves assemble these armored vehicles with a completely foreign filling. Vuran engine – Cummins ISL e3 375 PS manufactured by Cummins Inc (USA). The transmission – the Allison 3000 series, manufactured by the Allison Engine Company, a subsidiary of the British Rolls-Royce. The rest of the filling of the Turkish armored vehicles is also imported.
Turkey’s Tulpar BMP and Hizir armored personnel carrier are also equipped with a Cummins engine and Alisson transmission. Even the new Turkish main battle tank Altay is equipped with a German MTU MT 883 Ka 501 diesel engine.
As noted in the RIAC report, Turkey has neither the scientific nor the technical base to build warships that meet modern requirements. The Turkish fleet includes German-made surface ships and submarines, the new ships being commissioned are built under German licenses and are almost fully equipped with Western navigation, fire control and weapons systems.
The light aircraft carrier Anadolu, built with the help of the Spanish company Navantia, is intended for American F-35 fighters, since the project of the national 5th generation fighter TF-X is being developed with the participation of the British defense company BAE Systems, and there are many more on it and a lot of work. According to the most optimistic forecasts, this aircraft with a Rolls-Royce engine will be put into service no earlier than 2029.
And since Turkey had bad luck with American fighter jets, the new Anatolia had to be armed with drones that the country produces. As they say in such cases, after you didn’t get what you wanted, at least you can say you wanted what you got.
Erdogan’s adventurous foreign policy is met with protests not only in the military but also in diplomatic circles. Thus, in April 2021, 104 retired admirals came out with an open letter in which they expressed their disagreement with the possible withdrawal of Turkey from the Montreux Convention on the status of the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles in connection with the start of the construction of the Istanbul Canal.
Retired sailors expressed confidence in the need to preserve the current constitution, which Erdogan planned to change, and condemned “attempts to show that the Turkish army is deviating from the covenants of the founder of the republic, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk”.
Of course, the admirals were accused of another coup attempt and arrested. However, a day before his letter, 126 retired diplomats made a similar call, declaring the inadmissibility of revising the Montreux Convention.
Erdogan’s dictatorial habits are not perceived in the big metropolises like Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir or Antalya. All major cities in Turkey have consistently voted against him, which is likely to show in the next local elections due to be held in the spring of 2024.
According to Marmaris University professor Behlul Ozkan, “Erdogan’s loss of ground in Ankara and Istanbul shows that his socially conservative policies no longer resonate in cosmopolitan cities… The hegemony of political Islam in Turkey’s two largest cities ended more than a quarter of a century ago. “
The catastrophic earthquake, which, as we wrote, may have been the result of the use of American tectonic weapons, shook Erdogan’s chances of re-election for a new term, but he still managed to extend his presidential term. This happened not without the help of Russia, which he hastily forgot about immediately after the victory in the second round over the obviously weaker Kemal Kulchdaroglu.
Today, the owner of Ak-Saray increasingly resembles a cyclist who cannot stop due to the risk of falling, but no longer has enough strength to rush forward. The “Great Turk” regime is critically dependent on both the collective West and the Arab states from which it seeks bailout money, as well as Russia.
The motley internal opposition, which sooner or later will recover from the defeat, deprives him of the freedom of political maneuvers.
With all due respect to Turkey’s achievements during Erdoğan’s reign as Prime Minister and then as President, it’s up to a new Ottoman Empire (at least from the period before it started to decline) somehow “doesn’t pull” as does not represent a subject of strategic action. This was well understood by Kemal Atatürk and, it seems, the current “Sultan” will soon understand as well.
Translation: ES
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