one, live time
1. Domestic situation
Typhoon “Plum” hits eastern China:From 08:00 yesterday to 06:00 today, heavy or heavy rains occurred in parts of northern Zhejiang, southeastern Jiangsu and other places, and heavy local rains or extremely heavy rains (250- 283 mm) in Shaoxing and Ningbo in Zhejiang.
Significant rainfall occurred in the Sichuan Basin:From 08:00 yesterday to 06:00 today, there were heavy rains or heavy rains in parts of the western Sichuan Basin, southern Guizhou, southern Yunnan, and western Guangxi, and heavy local rains (100-176 mm) in Mianyang and Leshan, Sichuan, and the maximum hourly rainfall in the above areas from 30 to 70 mm.
2. Live abroad
Heavy rainfall occurs in places like the Indian Peninsula and Southeast Asia:There are moderate to heavy rains, local heavy rains or heavy rains and strong meteorological convectives such as thunderstorms and strong winds in parts of the Indian Peninsula, the Indochinese Peninsula, the Japanese Islands, the Greater Sunda Islands, the Great Lakes of the United States , Labrador Peninsula and West Africa.
High temperatures in West Asia and North Africa：The highest temperature in the Arabian Peninsula, Iranian Plateau, Indus Plain, Mesopotamian Plain, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Sudan, Niger, Libya, Western France, Southern United States, Western Mexico, Central Brazil, and Australia northern has exceeded 35 ℃, between which, reaches 38-40 ℃ in some areas and exceeds 42 ℃ locally.
Second, the key weather forecast
1. National key weather
(1) Typhoon“Plum Blossom” will land in the coastal areas of northern Zhejiang
The center of typhoon No. 12 this year “Meihua” (strong typhoon level) is located on the sea about 275 kilometers southeast of Xiangshan County, Zhejiang Province at 5:00 on the 14th. Pa, the seventh wind radius level the circle is 240-300 kilometers, the radius of the tenth level wind circle is 80-100 kilometers, and the radius of the twelve-level wind circle is 50 kilometers.The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue an orange typhoon warning at 6am on September 14。
“Plum Blossom” is expected to move northwest at a speed of 20-25 kilometers per hour, and the intensity will be strengthened, gradually approaching the northeastern coast of Zhejiang, and will be in the area from Wenling to Zhoushan in Zhejiang from the afternoon to the night of the 14th. Landing in coastal areas (typhoon level or strong typhoon level, 38-45 m / s, level 13-14); after landing, “Plum Blossom” will continue to move northwest, and its intensity will gradually weaken (see Figure 1).
Most of the East China Sea and the waters near the Diaoyu Islands, the central and southern waters of the Yellow Sea, the Yangtze River estuary, are affected from 08:00 on 14 September to 08:00 on 15 September. Hangzhou Bay and the north coast of Taiwan island, the north coast of Fujian, the south coast of Shandong, Zhejiang There will be strong winds of magnitude 6-8 and gusts of magnitude 9-11 in the east, Shanghai and in the areas East Coastal Jiangsu Among them, there will be strong winds in the central and western seas of the East China Sea, the central and northern coasts of Zhejiang, the coasts of Shanghai, the southeastern coasts of Jiangsu, the Hangzhou Bay and the river estuary. Yangtze. winds of magnitude 9-11, gusts of magnitude 12-14 and winds of magnitude 12-14 on the sea near or in the area where the center “Plum Blossom” passes, with gusts of magnitude 15-16.
Figure 1 Forecast map of the probability of typhoon “Meihua” in the next 60 hours
Furthermore, Typhoon No. 14th of this year “Nanmadol” (tropical storm level) (English name: Nanmadol; origin of name: Micronesia; meaning of name: the famous ruins of Pohnpei) hit the island of Kyushu, Japan, at 02: 00: 00 of 14. about 1480 kilometers southeast in the northwest Pacific Ocean, and is expected to move northwest at a speed of 5-10 kilometers per hour, and its intensity will gradually increase. any impact on my country’s waters in the next three days.
(2)There will be heavy rains in eastern China
Affected by typhoon “Meihua” and its depression, from 14 to 16 September there will be heavy to heavy rains in eastern China, central and eastern Liaoning, including northern Zhejiang, Shanghai, eastern Jiangsu, Shandong peninsula and central and eastern Liaoning, etc. There are severe thunderstorms in some areas of the region, locally severe thunderstorms in northeastern Zhejiang and other places, cumulative rainfall can reach 50-150mm, and the local area can reach more than 350mm.
Heavy to heavy rain is expected from 08:00 on 14 September to 08:00 on 15 September in parts of Liaodong Peninsula, Central and Eastern Shandong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, East Anhui, Central Zhejiang and northern and central and western Sichuan Basin, including, East Jiangsu, severe thunderstorms in parts of Shanghai, northeastern Zhejiang and other places, and local heavy rainfall (250-280mm) in northeastern Zhejiang. Some of the areas mentioned above are accompanied by heavy short-term rainfall (maximum hourly rainfall is 30-60mm and the local area can exceed 70mm) and strong local convective weather conditions such as thunderstorms and strong winds are present.The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a yellow thunderstorm warning at 06:00 on September 14(See Figure 2).
In addition, affected by the cut line, 14-16, moderate to heavy rainfall and heavy local rains occurred in Western Sichuan Basin, Western Guizhou, Yunnan, and other places.
Figure 2 Forecast map of areas with heavy rainfall across the country (08:00 on 14 September – 08:00 on 15 September)
2. Foreign key weather
(1) Heavy rainfall in places like the United States Great Lakes and Alaska on the Indochinese Peninsula of India
Over the next three days there will be moderate to heavy and local rainfall abundant in the Indian Peninsula, the Indochina Peninsula, Indonesia, Central Russia and the Far East, Southern Northern Europe, the Great Lakes and Alaska, in eastern Canada and southern Mexico. In some of the areas above there will be thunderstorms Strong convective atmospheric conditions such as strong winds.
(2) Continuous high temperatures in West Asia and North Africa
Over the next three days, the Arabian Peninsula, the Mesopotamian Plain, the Indus Plain, North Africa, the United States and parts of western Mexico, Northern Australia, the Brazilian Plateau and other places will have high temperatures above 35 ° C and parts of West Asia, North Africa and other places will have high temperatures above 35 ° C. The maximum daily temperature in the region exceeds 40 ° C.
3. Specific forecast for the next three days
From 08:00 on 14 September to 08:00 on 15,Heavy to heavy rainfall has occurred in parts of the Liaodong Peninsula, central and eastern Shandong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, eastern Anhui, central and northern Zhejiang, and central and western Sichuan Basin. Among these, there were heavy rains in parts of eastern Jiangsu, Shanghai, and northeastern Zhejiang, with some local heavy rains (250-280 mm). There will be winds of magnitude 4-6 in parts of Hexi in Gansu, northern Jiangsu and central Zhejiang. There will be rotating winds of magnitude 10-11, gusts of magnitude 12 reduced to magnitude 8-9 and gusts of magnitude 10 in southern waters. of the East China Sea there will be rotating winds of magnitude 9-10 and gusts of magnitude 11 (see figure 3).
Figure 3 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on 14 September – 08:00 on 15 September)
From 08:00 on 15 September to 08:00 on 16,There is moderate to heavy rainfall in parts of eastern Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong, central and northern Jiangsu, eastern Anhui, southeast Sichuan, western Guizhou, northeastern Yunnan, and northwestern Guangxi, including central Liaoning, central Shandong, and Guizhou western. it is heavy rain or heavy rain (100-150 mm) in the area. There will be winds of magnitude 4 to 6 and higher in parts of northwestern Inner Mongolia, southern Xinjiang Basin, northern Jiangsu and other places, and there will be winds of magnitude 7 to 8, gusts of magnitude 9 and winds southeasterns of magnitude 7 to 8 and gusts of magnitude 7 in the southern waters of the Yellow Sea. With a southerly wind, there will be northeasterly winds of magnitude 5-7 and gusts of magnitude 8 in the Bohai Sea (see Figure 4).
Figure 4 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on 15 September – 08:00 on 16 September)
From 08:00 on 16 September to 08:00 on 17,There is moderate to heavy rainfall in parts of northeastern Inner Mongolia, eastern Jilin and Liaoning, eastern Yunnan, southern Guizhou, and western Guangxi, including heavy rain or heavy rain (100-130 mm) in parts of central Liaoning and other places. There will be winds of magnitude 4 to 6 and higher in some areas of Liaoning and other places, the Bohai Sea will have winds of magnitude 7 to 8, the gust of magnitude 9 will be reduced to magnitude 6-7 and the gust of magnitude 8 will have northerly winds of magnitude 6 to 7, the wind from southeast to southwest with a gust of magnitude 8 (see Figure 5).
Figure 5 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on 16 September – 08:00 on 17)
4. Influence and concern
1. Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Liaoning and other places and the East Sea area of my country need to pay attention to the strong wind and rain and the negative effects caused by typhoon “Plum Blossom”;
2. In Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizhou and other places with heavy rainfall, pay attention to possible flash floods and geological disasters;
3. Pay attention to the changing trends and impacts of meteorological drought in the Yangtze River Basin.
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