A Chinese spy balloon brought US-China relations to rock bottom. Picture: On February 22, 2023, the Pentagon released a photo taken earlier that month, showing a U.S. Air Force U-2 reconnaissance aircraft hovering above a Chinese Communist spy balloon. (US Department of Defense/AFP)
[The Epoch Times, December 31, 2023](Epoch Times reporters Song Tang and Yi Ru interviewed and reported) At present, the CCP’s Wolf Warrior diplomacy and panda diplomacy have failed, and its diplomacy with the West has reached the end of the road. The CCP authorities are still boasting. Experts say that the CCP’s diplomacy is at the end of its rope: it can’t be tough on the outside world, and it can’t win over other countries, so it easily gets blamed, and then it falls into a situation of diplomatic isolation.
The so-called top ten “achievements” listed by Xinhua News Agency include “Chinese (Chinese Communist Party) characteristics”, “tenacious struggle”, etc. These “achievements” are the epitome of the Chinese Communist Party’s diplomatic practice in the past few years and have led to the deterioration of relations with the West and even neighboring countries. , the root cause of China’s economic downturn. From December 27 to 28, the CCP held a Central Foreign Affairs Work Conference. On the 29th, the leader of the CCP met with CCP diplomats and asked them to become a “diplomatic iron army” that “dare to fight and be good at fighting.”
In the era of economic dominance, the CCP’s foreign relations were centered on the United States. To improve diplomatic relations was actually to improve relations with the United States. With the US-China trade war, the three-year epidemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Kazakhstan conflict and other events, the CCP’s position has become increasingly antagonistic to the West.
“The main reason is that the CCP wants to gradually change the international order, and Western countries have discovered and realized it,” Ding Shufan, an honorary professor at the School of International Affairs at National Chengchi University in Taiwan, told The Epoch Times. “In addition, the CCP encourages the courage to fight. Ambassadors like Lu Shaye He became unabashed in his speech and expressed it in a very confrontational way, which made the relationship between China (the CCP) and Western countries very bad.”
Shen Mingshi, researcher and director of Taiwan National Defense Security Research Institute (provided by Shen Mingshi)
Regarding this CCP diplomatic conference, Shen Mingshi, researcher and director of the Taiwan National Defense Security Research Institute, told The Epoch Times that the CCP Central Diplomatic Work Conference seemed to have more of a declarative meaning and did not point out what kind of problems exist now or in the future. How to solve it etc.
“The Central Economic Work Conference a while ago also mentioned a little bit about how to deal with China’s economy in the future. But this diplomatic work conference seems to be quite abstract, highlighting the diplomatic thinking of the Communist Party of China, diplomatic thinking with Chinese characteristics, etc.”
Shen Mingshi said, but what exactly is the diplomatic thought of the leader of the Communist Party of China is not actually mentioned. Of course, it also mentions Chinese (Chinese Communist Party) characteristics and Chinese (Chinese Communist Party) style; he also mentioned a community with a shared future for mankind, which is actually to win over southern countries. Break through China’s diplomatic dilemma.
Shen Mingshi said that the CCP emphasizes cooperation and development with southern countries, especially combining security with development. It proposed three so-called major initiatives in 2021 (global development initiative, global security initiative, and global civilization initiative). In fact, it combines Economic diplomacy, security diplomacy and cultural united front are integrated, but in fact the current internal economic situation may affect the implementation of the “Belt and Road” or the three major global initiatives.
“The relationship between major powers mentioned in it is actually the relationship with the United States. The relationship with the United States is the most important at present, and it must emphasize peaceful coexistence.”
Wolf Warrior and Panda both failed
The CCP’s panda diplomacy began with Nixon’s visit to China in 1972. At that time, the CCP was in urgent need of support from the United States. At the end of the last century and the beginning of this century, panda diplomacy became recognized by the world as a result of China’s accession to the WTO. The CCP’s diplomacy became tougher only in 2008-2009. After the financial crisis in the West in 2012 and 2013, Xi accelerated the pace after taking office. After the outbreak of Covid-19, the CCP’s “Wolf Warrior Diplomacy” reached its climax.
However, after the reset, the Chinese economy did not recover as expected. If it could not obtain foreign investment and technology, it would be difficult for the Chinese economy to survive independently. Therefore, the authorities changed the diplomatic script and began to soften their attitude towards the West.
At present, Wolf Warrior diplomacy has failed. Zhao Lijian, the CCP’s number one Wolf Warrior diplomat, who once claimed that “the US military brought the COVID-19 virus to Wuhan” has been thrown into the cold yamen; French Ambassador Lu Shaye has thrown out the undecided status of Central and Eastern European countries, causing the CCP to We have to keep a distance from him; South Korean Ambassador Xing Haiming’s wolf diplomacy angered South Korea, and South Korean political circles called for Xing Haiming to be listed as “persona non grata”; in recent times, we have not heard any outrageous remarks from Chinese diplomats.
The CCP’s “Wolf Warrior” diplomats have made a series of embarrassing appearances in the international arena, leading to conflicts between Beijing and many countries. (Epoch Times composite picture)
Panda diplomacy, which symbolizes a friendly image, has also failed. Giant pandas have gradually left zoos in the United States, Europe and Australia, and few Western politicians have publicly requested the renewal of the panda treaty. This is a sign of the cold relationship between the CCP and European and American countries.
Shen Mingshi said that the CCP was originally very confident in its Wolf Warrior diplomacy and felt that it had surpassed the United States and that other countries had to listen to it. However, due to the epidemic, its economy has declined, and it has also discovered that its military capabilities or national power are far weaker than those of the United States. Imagination is not that strong.
“Now Wolf Warrior diplomacy is not working because everyone knows its true face and its true intentions. It can be seen that it is currently in a diplomatic dilemma, and many of its policies are not supported by many countries.”
“Panda diplomacy is a united front approach, but in fact it is expensive for many countries to raise pandas, especially if they give birth to red pandas and have to return them to China. They think it is a loss-making business.”
Ding Shufan, Emeritus Professor, School of International Affairs, National Chengchi University, Taiwan (provided by Ding Shufan)
Ding Shufan believes that the most important thing is that the relationship between the United States and China has been deteriorating. When the atmosphere of the entire society becomes less friendly towards China (CCP), more and more Americans think that China (CCP) is an enemy and not a friend. Of course pandas are useless. Because no matter how cute the panda is, it cannot compare with the reality of the decline in favorability towards China (CCP). This panda diplomacy cannot make up for it.
Nowadays, the CCP’s diplomacy towards the West has reached its end, and no matter what method it uses, it will be difficult to prevent the deterioration. Shen Mingshi said that the so-called “Guizhou donkey’s skills are exhausted” means that if you try to be tough on the outside world, you can’t be tough, and if you try to win over the country, you can’t win over the country, so you will get blamed at every turn, and then you will fall into a situation of diplomatic isolation.
“The first reason is that the CCP’s strong expansion in the past and its tough attitude towards surrounding territorial sovereignty issues have made some countries feel that they may have conflicts with the CCP in the future, so they seek assistance from major powers outside the region.”
“The second one is the countries it originally wanted to win over. For example, it used the “One Belt, One Road” initiative to assist many countries in infrastructure construction. However, due to the CCP’s own economic recession, the countries being aided did not actually receive substantial benefits from it, and there was no increase. Job opportunities, high interest rates cannot be paid, and major railways, roads, and ports will eventually be handed over to the Chinese Communist Party, which will become a debt trap and make the country even poorer.”
“Then there is the relationship with the United States. It thinks it can compete with the United States, so it adopts a confrontational or tough attitude towards the United States on many issues, and the concealment of the COVID-19 epidemic has made many countries no longer believe it. Communist Party of China.”
Will the CCP’s diplomatic line change in the future?
Regarding the direction of the CCP’s diplomatic route in the future, Shen Mingshi analyzed that although the CCP’s new foreign minister has not yet taken office, the party leader has taken diplomacy into his own hands. He probably has several main goals: easing relations with the United States, and then strengthening the strategy with Russia. Cooperate, then win over countries in the Global South, and then have territorial sovereignty disputes with neighboring countries. It adopts this soft and hard strategy.
“For example, regarding the Philippines, on the one hand, it shows strength or criticizes and strengthens its legitimate sovereign status in disputed waters; on the other hand, it attempts to divide the surrounding countries. This is a typical strategy in the past of pulling in and suppressing with one hand and suppressing with the other. .”
In addition, it must play the role of arbiter on issues such as the Ukraine war or the Israel-Kazakhstan conflict. Shen Mingshi said that in addition to North Korea, Iran, Russia or some Middle Eastern countries, the CCP is also seeking to penetrate into different regions.
“Like Afghanistan, it also plays the role of replacing the United States. Its ambassador did not withdraw. The Taliban regime also sent its ambassador to China. (Communist) China became the first country in the world to accept and recognize the ambassador of the Afghan regime, saying that it In fact, we want to build a diplomatic model that is different from Western countries. Western countries consider you an enemy and a terrorist, but I will establish diplomatic relations with you.”
He said, “Now that the Chinese Communist Party is trying to win over other countries, it basically has common interests or a common stance against the United States. In this case, in order to avoid conflict with you, it will be a little conciliatory with you, but it is more about strengthening Win over countries that are anti-American or have conflicts with the United States to build an international force that can compete with the United States.”
“The outside world said that the CCP has provided weapons to Hamas, and even the tunnels were built by the CCP by sending engineers to help it. As long as it can attack the United States, cause trouble to the United States, reduce the national power of the United States, or create more diplomatic troubles for it to highlight The CCP, the CCP will do it.”
On October 15, 2023, the “Belt and Road” billboard on the streets of Beijing showed the reflection of the monitor next to it. (Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images)
Ding Shufan said that the CCP should probably understand the deterioration of relations with the West, but it has already set its tone. The so-called great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation emphasizes the courage to fight. It is difficult to make major adjustments and compromises, and many aspects may still continue.
“Xi seems to have made some compromises, but they are basically very slight and very uncertain. Whether they can be implemented in the future is a question. Whether it is with the United States or the European Union, it is basically a superficial response. “
He said, “Just like the San Francisco Summit said that there is no timetable for attacking Taiwan in 2027 or 2035, and it is also willing to resume high-level military dialogue at the defense minister level with the United States, but in fact, it often faces certain situations and the United States wants to talk to the Chinese Communist Army When Fang communicated, there was no response from the Chinese Communist Party.”
Ding Shufan said that basically all third world countries became independent after World War II. The so-called historical memory of anti-imperialism and anti-colonialism may still be there, and China (the CCP) uses this historical memory to some extent.
“But these third world countries are also a burden for China (CCP) to a certain extent. They basically want to beg China. It seems that many third world countries basically agree with China (CCP), but in fact these To put it harshly, third world countries are actually China (CCP)’s burden.”
Editor in charge: Lin Yan#
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2023-12-31 12:07:24
